Obi, Atiku, El-Rufai: Ranking ADC’s Best Ticket Pairings to Defeat Tinubu in a fair election

Back in 2013, the dominance of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)—a party that, up until then, had ruled Nigeria since the country returned to civil rule in 1999—was being challenged by the emergence of a new political force. That force was the merger of three major opposition parties: the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), and the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP). A faction of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) also merged into the newly formed All Progressives Congress (APC).

The merger, and the politicians who backed it, marked the biggest political realignment in Nigeria’s democratic history. While Tom Ikimi represented the ACN, Senator Annie Okonkwo stood in for APGA, Ibrahim Shekarau chaired the ANPP’s merger committee, and Garba Shehu led the CPC’s, the coalition brought together some of the biggest names in Nigerian politics.

Muhammadu Buhari, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Atiku Abubakar, Rotimi Amaechi, Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, Rabiu Kwankwaso, and others coalesced around a common goal: to wrest power from the ruling PDP. The plot was wildly successful, with the APC sweeping the 2015 elections and then-President Goodluck Jonathan conceding defeat to Buhari even before the final results were announced.

Now, 12 years later, a group of heavyweight politicians in the opposition have once again come under one umbrella—the African Democratic Congress (ADC)—with the aim of unseating the ruling APC in 2027. But the question is this: what political configuration will be strong enough to, assuming free and fair elections, defeat Tinubu?

A few pairings are already gaining traction in emerging political discussions. Here’s a look at their strengths and capacity to challenge the incumbent.

5. Nasir El-Rufai / Rotimi Amaechi

As with the El-Rufai/Obi pairing, an El-Rufai/Amaechi ticket runs the risk of being too top-heavy with northern and APC legacy figures.

While both men are competent and well-known from the Buhari era, the ticket lacks grassroots inspiration or a balancing figure. Southern voters are unlikely to be energized by a ticket where Amaechi is vice president, particularly when many view him as a political insider with limited electoral traction.

Chances of defeating Tinubu in a free and fair election: 3/10

4. Rotimi Amaechi / Nasir El-Rufai

Rotimi Amaechi as presidential candidate and El-Rufai as VP could form a fierce, no-nonsense duo—two political bulldozers with deep ties to Nigeria’s power structure. Amaechi, former transport minister and ex-Rivers governor, commands influence in the South-South and was one of Tinubu’s earliest critics within the APC.

Together, they could appeal to the “strongman” sentiment among older voters. But here’s the catch: both men carry baggage. Amaechi’s tenure was marked by controversies and political clashes, and his influence in Rivers State is questionable now that Nyesom Wike appears to have a firm grip on the State. For El-Rufai, his divisive politics may not energize younger or undecided voters.

Chances of defeating Tinubu in a free and fair election: 4.5/10

3. Nasir El-Rufai / Peter Obi

Although many Obidients (as Peter Obi’s supporters have come to be known) have voiced opposition to any arrangement that does not make their principal the presidential flagbearer, it is possible—though less likely—that the ticket could be flipped.

Flipping the ticket could shift the emotional core of the campaign. El-Rufai as the presidential candidate would make the campaign more aggressive and more northern-focused—a region that holds the numbers and is more likely to vote one of their own. His critics accuse him of authoritarian tendencies, while his defenders see a visionary technocrat unafraid of big reforms.

Obi’s presence here would soften El-Rufai’s hard edges, offering southern reassurance and economic credibility.

Also Read: Peter Obi on ADC Coalition: “We Must Build Bridges, Even the Uneasy Ones, to Fix Nigeria”

But would Obi’s core supporters—many of whom supported him precisely because he represented a break from the old political order—rally behind him in a second-fiddle role?

Even if the majority of Obidients are somehow convinced to support this ticket, the unwritten rule of rotational presidency—one that led Obi to propose a single term if elected—makes it difficult to convince the South to back another northern president so soon.

Chances of defeating Tinubu in a free and fair election: 5/10

2. Atiku Abubakar / Peter Obi

This pairing would be a political reunion—a callback to 2019 when Obi served as Atiku’s running mate under the PDP banner. The duo lost to Buhari then, but Nigeria’s political landscape has changed significantly since.

Atiku remains a northern political heavyweight with loyalists in key northern states. His long-standing ambition to become president is no secret. However, his age, overfamiliarity, and lack of novelty could work against him in 2027. Also, considering the informal rotational presidency principle, he may be less appealing to southern voters who largely supported him before 2023.

Obi’s presence adds freshness to the ticket, but it may also spark debates about his consistency. Would his supporters—particularly the youth-driven “Obidient” base—back him under an Atiku-led ticket again?

Still, this duo could present a mature and experienced alternative to Tinubu—if they can convincingly show they’ve learned from past failures.

Chances of defeating Tinubu in a free and fair election: 6/10

1. Peter Obi / Nasir El-Rufai

One of the most likely tickets would be Peter Obi as presidential candidate with Nasir El-Rufai as his running mate. There are several reasons why this configuration holds potential.

First, an Obi-led ticket backed by El-Rufai could energize both southern and northern bases. Obi, still enjoying significant goodwill from the 2023 elections, is seen by many younger voters as a clean, data-driven reformer. His disciplined messaging on corruption, fiscal responsibility, and infrastructure earned him credibility—particularly among Nigeria’s lower class, middle class, and diaspora.

El-Rufai, while controversial, brings political weight from the North. The former Kaduna governor is one of the more ideologically driven actors in Nigerian politics, respected for administrative competence and feared for his bluntness. His northern Muslim identity balances Obi’s southeastern Christian profile, offering a symbolic North-South fusion similar to the strategy the APC used successfully in 2015.

However, El-Rufai’s polarizing legacy—particularly regarding religious and ethnic tensions—could hurt turnout among Christian communities. Yet, if these two strike a deal, they could tap into a powerful message of reform and anti-establishment energy that neither can carry alone.

Chances of defeating Tinubu in a free and fair election: 7.5/10