Opinion: PDP Is Slowly Becoming The 3rd Force, And Nyesom Wike Is Accelerating This Decline

The 2023 presidential election should have been an easy ride for the Peoples Democratic Party, especially with the scorecard of the ruling All Progressives Congress, which many believed was underwhelming for the past seven years and nothing expected to improve in the few months to go significantly. 

Atiku Abubakar, former vice president and presidential candidate of the PDP also in the last election, was supposed to do better at the polls in 2023 than he did in 2019. After all, he had gone against Muhammadu Buhari, a politician with a stronghold in the northern region. The lack of the president’s name in the polls should mean a better outing in the north and a clean sweep of the south east and south south, two regions that have consistently delivered at the polls for the PDP. A loss in the south west was expected to be immaterial as the votes in other regions were expected to give PDP the victory.

Then Peter Obi happened, or should we say Nyesom Wike is happening? There is no doubt it’s the combination of the two, but the latter is having a more devastating effect on the position the PDP has found itself: The new Third Force.

In Nigeria’s political parlance, the Third Force was expected to be a new political force outside of the two dominant political parties that would come in and disrupt the status quo. The party was not necessarily expected to win but to perform relatively well and be commended for a good showing. In short, the party and its presidential candidate were not expected to win.

Former president, Chief Olusegun Obasanjo was the first to propose the creation of a third force in 2018 to take power from the two dominant parties. Fela Durotoye, Kingsley Moghalu, Omoyele Sowore and Oby Ezekwesili were some of the politicians who self-described themselves as the third force. No one expected any of them to win the presidential election, and as expected, they all performed terribly in the 2019 presidential election. The third force took up a new meaning: A relatively weak party fielding a relatively weak presidential candidate that would make a dent but not win the election.

When Peter Obi announced his exit from the PDP  to join the Labour party to seek his presidential fortune, he and his party were considered the third force and were only expected to stay in the shadow while the two main parties battle it out. However, Obi’s popularity among Nigerian youths has boosted his chances of giving the APC and PDP a run for their money. A recent poll by ANAP Foundation tips Obi to win the presidency if elections were conducted in September. No doubt he will take a chunk of votes that would have gone to the PDP, particularly from the south east ad possibly the south south.

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Obi’s breakaway from PDP is not the only reason the party appears to be struggling to stay afloat. Governor Nyesom Wike of Rivers state, the one man credited with keeping the party alive in the spate of defections that hit it ahead of the 2015 general elections, is actively working against the party. After losing the party’s presidential election, the Rivers state governor has been critical of the PDP and has stated clearly that he would not be supporting Atiku’s presidential campaign, not helped by the refusal of the chairman, Senator Iyorshe Ayu, to resign.

The APC camp has stayed relatively strong, although the choice of a Muslim-Muslim ticket has raised concern among its Christian members. Obi is also gaining momentum, while the PDP is struggling to be considered a serious contender due to its internal wrangling.

Nigeria’s presidential elections have always been two-horse races, and while it looked like it was going to be a three-horse gallop to the finish, Atiku’s PDP is beginning to saunter out of the race thanks to Wike holding the reins. Wike has secured the support of Governors Samuel Ortom and Seyi Makinde of Benue and Oyo, respectively and is working hard to recruit more support from the south. At the moment, the party is divided across regional lines, a problem that is taking away valuable efforts in focusing on the presidential campaign and the 2023 elections.  Nothing is certain, though, as 2023 promises to be intriguing.