Mirabel and the verdict we were never qualified to give

We do not know what happened to Mirabel.

That sentence will irritate people on both sides of this conversation, and that irritation is precisely the point. In the days since a young Nigerian woman broadcast her distress on TikTok and accused someone of rape, the internet has split loudly, viciously into two camps.

One side holds her story as truth. The other side calls it performance. And both camps have made the same fundamental error: they have appointed themselves judge in a case where the evidence has not even been properly gathered yet.

Let us sit with the discomfort of not knowing. It is the only intellectually honest place to begin. To those who believe her without reservation

Your instinct is not wrong. It is rooted in something real. Statistically, false rape accusations are significantly rarer than unreported rapes. Culturally, Nigerian women have every reason to fear coming forward, the stigma, the re-traumatisation at police stations, the community gossip that turns the microscope on the survivor’s character rather than the accused’s conduct. When a woman risks her privacy, her reputation, and her dignity to make an allegation public, that act carries weight.

But believing survivors and demanding due process are not opposing positions. They are complementary ones. If Mirabel was assaulted, she deserves a conviction built on evidence so airtight that it cannot be appealed away. Rushed conclusions, however sympathetic, do not produce that. They produce noise. And in Nigeria’s court system, noise is often all the defense needs to walk a guilty man free.

Passion without process is not justice. It is just another form of chaos.

To those who are certain she is lying

Your certainty is revealing. Ask yourself honestly: what would she have needed to do differently for you to believe her? If your answer involves her injuries being more severe, her composure being more distressed, her story being more linear, her history being more spotless then you are not applying a standard of evidence. You are applying a standard of performance. You are deciding how a real victim should look and disqualifying her for failing the audition.

Yes, false accusations exist. They are documented, they are serious, and they cause real harm to the accused. A justice system must account for them. But the reflexive sprint to discredit a woman who is hospitalised, before a single investigation is concluded, before a single clinical report is released, is not scepticism. It is a cultural reflex. It is what happens in a society that has quietly decided that a woman’s credibility is always the first thing on trial.

Where both sides actually agree, whether they know it or not

Here is the thing that the noise on both sides is drowning out: the reason this case is being tried on social media is because nobody trusts the institutions that should be trying it in court.

If Nigerian police stations were known for handling rape allegations with professionalism, dignity, and competence, Mirabel might have gone there first. She didn’t. She reached for her phone.

That choice was not random it was a calculation. Social media felt safer and more likely to produce a response than the formal systems built for exactly this purpose. And when the Ogun State Government only mobilised after the video went viral, they confirmed her calculation was correct.

This is the system’s indictment, not just Mirabel’s story. A functional investigative process would not leave the truth at the mercy of public opinion. It would gather evidence, conduct examinations, follow procedure, and produce findings that could withstand scrutiny. People would not need to choose a side on X because they would have something more reliable than a TikTok video and their own priors to work with.

What we should actually be demanding

Not a verdict. Not yet. What this moment demands is transparency, a thorough, independent investigation conducted to clinical and legal standards, with findings that are made available in a way that respects both the survivor’s dignity and the accused’s right to fair process. Commissioner Adeleye says investigations are being conducted professionally. The Dapo Abiodun administration claims zero tolerance for sexual and gender-based violence. These are words. We have heard words before.

The measure of this government’s seriousness will not be in press statements. It will be determined by whether an arrest is followed by a credible prosecution. Whether medical evidence is properly preserved and presented. Whether Mirabel receives long-term psychosocial support or is simply discharged once the media cycle moves on. Whether the accused, if guilty, is convicted or whether the case quietly dies in a drawer somewhere, as so many do.

Mirabel may be a survivor. She may not be. The investigation will have to answer that, and we are obligated to let it try before we decide.