Explainer: How the Israel-Iran War Could Affect You as a Nigerian

In the early hours of Sunday, June 22, the escalation between Israel and Iran took a dramatic and concerning turn when President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. had successfully carried out military strikes against three of Iran’s nuclear sites, including Fordow—regarded as one of the most heavily guarded facilities, deep underground and within the mountains.

While Trump claimed that the operation “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear capabilities, Tehran appears, at least for the moment, undeterred. The Iranian government responded by launching retaliatory missiles on Israel and warning of consequences for the attack.

Since the escalation began on June 13, over 400 Iranians have been killed, and at least 24 casualties have been recorded on the Israeli side. The ongoing conflict is poised to have a much broader impact, not just across the Middle East but around the globe.

Nigeria—over 13 hours by flight from Abuja to Tehran or Tel Aviv—will not be insulated from the ripple effects of the war. These impacts will manifest economically, socially, and even religiously.

Safety Concerns for Nigerians Living in Iran and Israel

Although Israel and Iran are not top destinations for Nigerians, over 1,000 citizens—including students, workers, and pilgrims—are currently stranded in both countries due to the conflict.

A video shared on Facebook by Travel Vlog, a page run by a Nigerian, narrated how him and other Nigerians took cover in a bomb shelter as sirens blared to warn of an incoming Iranian missile.

While countries like the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Greece, and China have successfully evacuated some of their citizens from the warring nations, the Nigerian government has yet to do so. However, it announced on Saturday that an agreement with Armenia to allow safe passage for “our citizens caught in the distressing situation” is at an advanced stage.

As a result, families in Nigeria with relatives in Israel or Iran face emotional and financial stress, particularly if their loved ones had relocated in search of better opportunities.

Spike in Crude Oil Prices: A Double-Edged Sword

Further destabilisation in the Middle East—which accounts for approximately 31.5% of global crude oil production—will send shockwaves through the oil sector.

Iran is the world’s ninth-largest oil producer and the third-largest in gas production. Continued escalation with Israel could further strain its production, which is already hampered by sanctions—a disruption that would affect global output and drive up the price of crude oil in the international market.

If the war pushes oil prices—currently around $77.93 per barrel—even higher, Nigeria stands to gain increased oil revenue. This mirrors the experience during the Arab-Israeli war of the 1970s, when conflict in the Middle East led to a global oil price surge, sparking what is now remembered as Nigeria’s “oil boom.”

Since Nigeria’s 2025 budget was benchmarked at $75 per barrel—and oil exports account for over 80% of total exports and are a primary source of foreign exchange—the war could lead to significant fiscal gains for the government.

However, this is a double-edged sword. The Dangote Refinery, which began operations in January 2024, still relies heavily on crude oil imports from the U.S. to meet its 650,000-barrel-per-day capacity. This means that while the importation of refined petroleum products declined by 42.2% in Q1 2025 (from N6.55 trillion in Q1 2024), Nigerians may face higher petrol prices due to increased crude costs.

This would have a cascading effect across sectors, especially energy and transportation.

Disruption of Imports from Israel and Iran

Both Israel and Iran provide niche products and services to Nigeria—such as advanced agricultural technology from Israel and specific industrial goods from Iran. The conflict could disrupt these supply chains, causing scarcity and pushing prices higher.

In 2023, Michael Freeman, Israel’s Ambassador to Nigeria, said trade between Nigeria and Israel averaged between $200 million and $250 million yearly. Nigeria also imported over $46.5 million worth of non-oil goods from Iran that same year.

A prolonged conflict could jeopardize these commercial ties.

Risk of Domestic Political and Religious Tensions

Nigeria’s diverse population—divided almost evenly between Muslims and Christians—often reacts strongly to conflicts in the Middle East due to religious and ideological affiliations. The Iran-Israel war could deepen sectarian sentiments, with some Nigerians sympathizing with Iran (Shia-aligned) and others with Israel (perceived by many as Western or Christian-aligned), potentially fueling internal divisions.

Polarized sentiments may lead to protests, hate speech, or even violence—especially in northern Nigeria, where Iran exerts limited influence through figures like Sheikh Ibrahim Zakzaky, a Shia cleric. Such tensions could strain Nigeria’s already fragile social cohesion.

While Nigeria is not a direct party to the Israel-Iran war, the consequences could be far-reaching. From the safety of citizens abroad and volatility in oil prices to disrupted trade and internal religious tensions, the conflict may test the resilience of Nigeria’s economy and social fabric.