Hunger Protest: Why It Flopped and How Next Revolution Will Begin in Northern Nigeria
‘Who goes into a sporting competition by first revealing their master strategic plan to the opposing team before the game?‘
The EndBadGovernanceInNigeria protests, which were planned two weeks prior to August 1, the day the protest began, were bound to be an ineffective effort that achieved little rather than dampening the morale of many Nigerians.
When the hunger protests finally kicked off on Thursday, it appeared that the media attention the planned protests had garnered online, particularly on X, would be densely felt in the streets.
From the nation’s capital city, Abuja, to Lagos, the economic hub, Nigerians began slowly to march the streets in justified protest.
Slowly, before noon, the protests had gathered commendable momentum as videos of large demonstrations from the Northern parts of the country began to emerge.
From Kaduna to Kano, Katsina, and other core Northern states, the protests spread, and soon became the epicenter as videos of large crowds emerging from the region became the motivating force behind the demonstrations.
But that too was short-lived, not just because cases of looting and rioting began to slowly dominate the protests, but also because of the lack of genuine originality in the protest.
This is not to say Nigerians do not have authentic reasons to protest. The country, long ascribed as the economic powerhouse of the African continent, has, in recent times, lost several factors that earned it that name.
Millions of its citizens are swimming in poverty, as the country goes through one of its worst food inflation rates in three decades. At food inflation rate of over 40 percent, prices of essential foods—rice, beans, garri, and even eggs—have gone out of reach for many households, many of whom spend two-third of their income on food, according to World Food Programme (WFP).
Away from acute hunger, which is currently affecting over 31 million people according to one estimate, insecurity has surged, with the country not only witnessing an increased rate of kidnappings but also the dreaded return of suicide bombings.
Occasional fuel scarcity, hikes in electricity tariffs, repeated collapses of the national grid for those connected, and increased transportation costs are some of the other factors that have amplified the frustration of millions of Nigerians.
Hence, there are genuine reasons for the momentum of the protests to be sustained if the protests were not built on a faulty premise.
Faulty, used loosely here, partly because the ‘organisers’ first showed all their cards and gave the government weeks to counter their moves.
Why Hunger Protest Flopped
First, the premise of the protests, to End Bad Governance in Nigeria, is ambiguous and lacks specificity.
Protests, if recent ones around the globe could be used as context—and they should rightly be used—start from a single clear demand.
In Kenya, it was calls for the Financial Bill not to be passed by the parliament that sparked nationwide protests that have proven difficult to quell despite the bill being withdrawn.
In Bangladesh, it was the demand by University students to abolish the quota system, which allocates a third of Civil Service jobs to relatives of veterans who fought during the 1971 war with Pakistan, that sparked a fierce protest. That single demand became a movement that forced Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to resign and flee the country.
In Nigeria, one of the biggest protests the country has witnessed in recent years happened about four years ago in October 2020. And that too had a single goal—to disband the Special Anti-Robbery Squad (SARS), notoriously known for being involved in the extrajudicial killing of young Nigerians.
To cite one more example, the Yellow Vest protest in France that nearly consumed Emmanuel Macron’s government in 2018 began due to a planned hike in the price of fuel.
The similarities with these protests are that they started with a single purpose, a defined demand—not one as loose as ending bad governance. Then the protests would snowball into a movement of some sort and would continue even after the first demand had been met.
Since protests often start to stop a decision the government wants to implement, they are often not ‘planned.’
But the EndBadGovernanceInNigeria protests had a two-week notice, which, although helped to build online momentum, also gave the government, with larger resources, time to mount a successful counter.
To use a simple analogy, would Pep Guardiola, the head coach of Manchester City, be considered a coaching wizard if he reveals, even an hour before a game, what his strategic plans are to the opposing team?
Who goes into a sporting competition by first revealing their master strategic plan to the opposing team beforehand?
Yet, that’s what the organisers, many of whom are still largely unknown—another reason why it failed so fast—did when they warned the government that a protest was looming.
How Government Quell the Protest
The alarm did set off a counter-response by the government.
Meetings were held to perfect a counter-response.
Governors held press conferences to warn their citizens against taking part in the protests. Religious leaders became advocates of peace and patience, asking their congregations to pray and wait out the pains they are facing.
Political leaders in their droves issued threats, some subtle, others pronounced, spreading fear to genuinely hungry Nigerians who want the government to heed their cries and provide impactful remedies that will ease their hardship.
Protests to tell Nigerians not to embark in the hunger protests were held by citizens loyal to the government. The country’s First Lady, Remi Tinubu, would appeal to the empathy of mothers to warn their children not to take part in the protest.
President Bola Tinubu, who has long been described as a political master planner, would wait out three days before speaking to the nation, during which time the speech was ‘leaked’ before the pre-recorded broadcast aired on Sunday morning.
Hence, the analysis turned from whether his appeals should be heeded and follow the path of dialogue, to who leaked the President’s speech, the implications, and consequences.
It was a needed distraction, planned or not, that worked as Nigerians resumed their normal lives by the morning of Monday. There were pockets of demonstrations here and there, but even those in the streets that Monday knew the protests were over.
How the Next Revolution Will Begin in Northern Nigeria
Although nothing substantial was achieved—no bill was prevented from being passed, and no politician was forced to resign—rather, over 20 people lost their lives during the protest, ‘bad governance’ remains an issue that might soon spark a more streamlined massive protest.
Northern Nigeria, a region of over 100 million people, but with a poverty rate of over 70 percent and a staggeringly high illiteracy rate, might become the breeding ground for any massive protest that will emerge in the near future.
The region has become a hotspot for insecurity in the country, accounting for nearly 67 percent of all insecurity occurrences this year alone. Between January and August 11, 2024, over 5,300 people have lost their lives due to insecurity in the region, while 4,932 people have been kidnapped within the same period.
The high level of insecurity in the region has a cascading effect on almost all other areas of life, particularly agriculture, which is the main source of livelihood in the region. Once the hub that produced food to feed the nation, bandit attacks, Boko Haram insurgency, and the herder-farmer crisis have continued to discourage agricultural activities, leading to increased poverty.
Hence, the large crowds seen in the recent protest should not be dismissed as mere happenstance or be summarily dismissed as being entirely politically motivated. The waving of the Russian flag, whether sponsored to ruffle the administration of Bola Tinubu or not, is a subtle pointer that the region, in the event of any protest resurgence in the country, would lead a revolution of a scale that’ll shake Africa’s most populous nation.
