Tinubu’s Second-Year Speech Fact-Checked: Hope or Hype?
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, in a national address marking his second year in office, acknowledged Nigeria’s tough challenges but emphasized the resilience of its people and the steady progress his administration has achieved.
In a speech focused heavily on reform milestones, Tinubu defended controversial economic decisions, highlighted improvements in security, healthcare, and infrastructure, and reaffirmed his commitment to a renewed and prosperous Nigeria.
Below is a breakdown of the key claims he made during the speech, alongside an analysis of their real-world implications.
Economy and Economic Reforms
On removing the decades-long fuel subsidies and unifying Nigeria’s multiple foreign exchange windows, President Tinubu argued that these reforms prevented the country from heading toward fiscal collapse. According to him, inflation has begun to ease, rice and staple prices are declining, and oil rig counts have surged by over 400% compared to 2021, with $8 billion in new investments committed. The government also halted Ways & Means financing, thereby improving fiscal stability.
Tinubu: “We have stabilised our economy and are now better positioned for growth and prepared to withstand global shocks.”
Comment: However, since his assumption of office two years ago, the prices of most goods and services—according to the Price of Everything Report by SBM Intelligence—have doubled, many as a direct result of the subsidy removal and the collapse of the exchange rate, which caused the naira to lose significant value.
Public Revenue and Fiscal Management
Tinubu reported that revenue jumped to over ₦6 trillion in Q1 2025 alone, helping narrow the fiscal deficit from 5.4% of GDP in 2023 to 3.0% in 2024. He claimed that the NNPC, freed from fuel subsidy burdens, became a net contributor to the Federation Account. Nigeria’s external reserves reportedly rose by 500%, from $4 billion in 2023 to over $23 billion by the end of 2024, while the debt service-to-revenue ratio improved from nearly 100% in 2022 to under 40% by 2024.
Tinubu: “Our debt position is improving… We paid off our IMF obligations and grew our net external reserves by almost 500%.”
Comment: Despite these reported milestones in fiscal management, BudgIT, a civic tech organization promoting transparency in public finance, discovered that 11,122 projects valued at ₦6.93 trillion were indiscriminately added to the 2025 budget—with little to no value or justification regarding their impact on Nigerians.
Tax Reforms
The administration raised Nigeria’s tax-to-GDP ratio from 10% to over 13.5% in one year, largely by improving tax administration and cutting wasteful waivers. Key measures included removing VAT on essential goods such as food, education, healthcare, and rent, while introducing incentives for high-impact sectors like manufacturing, technology, and agriculture.
Tinubu: “These reforms are not just about revenue but about stimulating inclusive economic growth.”
Comment: Some Nigerians have expressed concern over what appears to be the government’s fixation on generating revenue through taxation—often at the expense of struggling citizens, many of whom do not earn a decent wage.
Security Improvements
Tinubu praised enhanced collaboration among security agencies, intelligence-driven operations, and improved welfare for the armed forces. Notably, areas in the northwest once controlled by bandits have reportedly seen restored order, enabling farmers to return to their lands and making previously dangerous highways safer.
Tinubu: “With the success achieved, farmers are back tilling the land to feed us. Highways, hitherto dangerous for travellers, have become safer.”
Comment: Despite these claims, Nigerians do not feel significantly safer. According to Beacon, a security consultancy firm, 22,778 people died due to insecurity between May 27, 2023, and May 27, 2025—higher than the 19,835 deaths recorded between May 28, 2021, and May 28, 2023.
Infrastructure Development
The speech highlighted extensive road construction and rehabilitation projects across Nigeria, including the Abuja-Kaduna-Zaria-Kano dual carriageway, the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway, the Second Niger Bridge access road, and many more.
Tinubu: “Under the Renewed Hope Agenda, the federal government has continued with major road construction and rehabilitation projects across all geopolitical zones.”
Comment: While acknowledging the need for road networks that link various states, many question the trail of economic devastation caused by the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway, most notably its impact on Landmark Beach, which provided livelihoods to over 4,000 people.
Healthcare Expansion
More than 1,000 primary health centres (PHCs) have been revitalized, with another 5,500 under upgrade. Tinubu said three out of six new cancer treatment centres are ready, free dialysis services are offered in select tertiary hospitals, and the Presidential Maternal Health Initiative has delivered over 4,000 free cesarean sections. National health insurance coverage expanded from 16 million to 20 million within two years.
Tinubu: “We offer free dialysis services in pilot tertiary hospitals and subsidise the service in others.”
Comment: Even with these claims, the government’s prioritization of healthcare remains questionable. Only 5.18% of the 2025 budget was allocated to the sector—far below the 15% recommended by the World Health Organization.
Agriculture and Food Security
Tinubu said the government procured thousands of tractors, farming tools, and fertilisers to support mechanized farming, aiming to boost food production and stabilize prices.
Tinubu: “We have launched aggressive initiatives to boost local food production, support farmers, and stabilise food prices.”
Comment: So far, the impact of the President’s food security initiative has not been felt by the population. High food costs remain a major driver of inflation—largely due to insecurity in several key food-producing regions.
Energy and Power Sector
The administration has made efforts to upgrade generation and transmission infrastructure and invest in off-grid solar energy to power homes, schools, and hospitals.
Tinubu: “We have launched initiatives to improve electricity generation by upgrading generation and transmission infrastructure and investing in off-grid solar energy.”
Comment: In reality, Nigeria experienced multiple nationwide blackouts in 2024 due to repeated grid collapses. Additionally, the cost of electricity for Band A users rose sharply from ₦72.30 per kWh in May 2023 to ₦209.50 in May 2025.
