Terrorist attacks on Nigeria, Benin and Niger border zone rose by 262% in 2025, study finds
Terrorist violence across the border regions of Nigeria, Benin Republic, and Niger Republic has surged sharply in 2025, with fatalities rising by 262 percent compared to the previous year, according to new data released by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) project.
The report highlights a significant escalation in attacks linked to Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), an al-Qaeda-affiliated group, and the Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP).
Both groups have intensified operations across the tri-border area, expanding their territorial footprint and increasing the scale of their campaigns.
ACLED’s senior West Africa analyst, Héni Nsaibia, noted that the evolving threat reflects not only heightened violence but also more strategic communication efforts by the militant groups.
According to the report, JNIM and ISSP are increasingly using public claims of responsibility to assert dominance and signal operational capacity in contested areas.
The data shows that parts of Benin and Niger Republic, alongside Nigeria’s Sokoto, Kebbi, Niger, and Kwara states, accounted for an 86 percent rise in violent incidents between 2024 and 2025.
Between June and November 2025, JNIM publicly claimed responsibility for a series of attacks in Basso, Wara, Nuku, and Karunji along the Benin–Nigeria border. These announcements marked some of the group’s first openly acknowledged operations inside Nigeria, confirming suspicions of its growing presence in areas where activity had previously been less visible.
Similarly, ISSP began formally claiming attacks in Goubey and Birni N’Konni along the Niger–Nigeria border in December and February. Prior to these claims, such incidents had often been attributed to the Lakurawa militant group.
The report attributes the worsening security situation partly to limited state presence and weak border controls. It also points to strained regional cooperation following the withdrawal of several Sahelian states from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), which has led to reduced cross-border coordination and heightened bilateral tensions.
Analysts warn that without stronger regional collaboration and improved security governance, the tri-border zone risks becoming an even more entrenched hub for extremist activity in West Africa.
