Population projections and implication on Nigeria’s economic growth
Nigeria’s population, currently at almost 196 million, is expected to keep increasing through the next five years. The economic implications, as projected by experts, are not so soothing.
Like 2015, Nigeria enters another very critical stage with the election coming up next year. Economic experts say the outcome of the election, and Nigeria’s increasing rate of births, will have important roles to play in the country’s growth in a few years.
The population is expected to hit over 200 million at the turn of 2019, and a double of that by 2050.
According to the Economist Intelligence Uint (EIU) in a new report, Nigeria needs to overcome prevalent challenges like corruption and bad governance to be able to effectively sustain an economy that will benefit her people in the future.
Though the EIU projects that “Nigeria’s long-term economic performance will pick up during 2020-50”, it said “growth in real GDP per head will remain below 1% per year in real terms during 2018-30.”
In a related report by the Gates Foundation, projected that, by 2050, more than 40 percent of the extremely poor people in the world will live in Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
The Gates Foundation and EIU both agreed in their reports that the protection and development of Nigerian youths – who constitute the larger part of the population – are vital to the country’s development.
“Today’s booming youth populations can be good news for the economy; if young people are healthy, educated, and productive, there are more people to do the kind of innovative work that stimulates rapid growth. This helps explain the amazing progress of the past generation in most of the world, and it is the key to spreading that progress everywhere,” the Gates Foundation said.
Population control remains a worrying and delicate issue in Nigeria, as procreation among the people is deeply rooted in cultural and religious mines.
EIU noted that though the large and young population could play in Nigeria’s favour, the
under-investment in healthcare facilities does not inspire optimism.
“An additional problem for the government is provision of education and training facilities for the rapidly growing population, as well as long-term employment
opportunities.
“Overall, it is difficult to be optimistic about the outlook without a substantial improvement in economic governance and policy implementation. There is time to turn the situation around over the timeframe to 2050, but the precedent is not positive,” the EIU said.
