How Ready are Peter Obi & Atiku to Wrestle Power from Tinubu?
We can all agree that the last 2023 Presidential elections was the closest Nigeria has ever gotten since Olu Falaye locked horns with Olusegun Obasanjo in 1999. At some point in the election, especially when Peter Obi claimed victory in Lagos sate, Eluu P supporters would have been forgiven for thinking their man would win it. Atiku, himself, claimed a lot of Northern states and so, President Tinubu, at one time or the other during the polls, felt cornered by two very daring political figures.
At the end, though, Tinubu won the elections and his opponents, try hard as they did, settled for second and third places behind him. It could have been anyone’s win, really. The election felt like a UEFA Champions League final complete with all the adrenaline and stoppage time winners. A classic, it was.
What made the political landscape at the time very unique was the composition of the warring parties. On one hand, you had the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) who just ushered out Buhari and had the “Jagaban” himself, political godfather extraordinaire, Bola Tinubu,” bear the flag of the party. Nothing could go wrong, right?
On the other hand, we had another titan of a party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) with a former Vice-President, Atiku Abubakar, representing it. His mere presence was intimidating and the party he stood on were no joke. They had tasted the Presidential villa severally and were far from a dying name. Names like Nyesom Wike made floors shake beneath their heels. They looked razor-sharp for the war.
Well, perhaps, of the three that went toe-to-toe on D-day, the party that shocked many was Labour Party—the one whom Atiku and Tinubu laughed at for having “no structure.” It so happened that, behind a very strong, credible, and extremely popular personality in Obi, his stature lent the party the structure his opponents claimed they had not and together with his band of staunch supporters, they became a structure that gave other structures a nightmare.
While all of that is now in the history books, one would, ordinarily, have thought that, despite defeat, both the LP & PDP would be building on their foundations last time out in order to strengthen even more with a view for toppling Tinubu come 2027, but, alas, that doesn’t seem to be the case. Rather than appear stronger, in fact, both appear weaker since then. This is worrisome given how vital the opposition is to any true democracy.
As regards the PDP, they look like a house on fire (in a bad way, though). That party is in complete disarray. In-house fighting is now the order of the day. The fact that one of their strong party figures, Nyesom Wike, accepted a key Ministerial position under Tinubu sends a clear statement—he is now APC in all but name. In Rivers, he is overseeing a fierce battle with Governor Fubara. The PDP Governors appear fully behind Fubara and it has fast degenerated into a war of words, with threats flying all over like ballistic missiles being shot.
If it is not the Fubara-Rivers crisis, then, it Bode George, a strong PDP figure, constantly mocking Wike and telling Atiku he has no chance come 2027. A house divided against itself cannot stand, the popular saying goes. How do you prepare to meet a foe outside when you are already exhausted from fighting the ones inside? These are not good signs for one of Nigeria’s oldest parties.
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As for the Labour Party (LP), the cracks started to develop during the last election tribunal cases that followed the contentious victory of the President. Factions soon emerged, on one hand, Julius Abure standing as the party Chairman, and, on the other, Lamidi Apapa, claiming to be the “authentic” Chairman. The public didn’t like the latter and since Obi swayed to Abure’s corner, it wasn’t long before the Eluu P guys took off Apapa’s cap after one of the tribunal cases and issued him a slap or two one fateful day. The slaps appear to have made him less vocal and so we assumed we had seen the last of that melee and could now focus on unifying LP.
Unlike fairytales, reality tends to have less colourful outcomes. The real PR blow was seeing one of Peter Obi’s lawyers on his election petitions case and one of his most vocal supporters, Kenneth Okonkwo, announce, recently, that he was done with the party and leaving. No one saw that coming. It became even worse when he made comments that appear to suggest that Peter Obi was unfit to lead the people to a “new Nigeria.” Wow! That was something.
These significant shifts in loyalties within the two opposition parties is, also, not helped by cross-carpeting among some of its elective representatives. Hundreds of LP and PDP members have since moved camp to the ruling party after winning tickets on the platform of the opposition. It shows that, rather than solidifying their base, they appear weakened even.
Now you understand my concerns regarding the readiness of these two parties come 2027. I do not doubt that the charisma of Peter Obi can get him to the finish line, neither do I challenge the political strength that Atiku can muster, but present day realities do not tell an inspiring tale of challengers equipped to wrestle power from their victors. If anything, it shows that the ruling party has not slept on its laurels and is already putting measures in place to make 2027 a success.
Our only hope is that, from now till 2027 (a difference of over 2yrs), that time period will give the opposition ample opportunity to clean up its mess and put together a fiercer contest than it did last time out. For the sake of democracy, many Nigerians hope this will be the case. I, personally, do not have anything against the incumbent President, but, the hunger, disaster and economic woes that have danced rings around his administration since assuming office is not something Nigerians want a repeat of.
Eluu P! PDP! The time to act is now. Fix yourself up and rise to the challenge. The hope of Nigeria’s democracy depends on you both. Wake up sleeping giants! Wake up!
