By the numbers: What we’ve learnt from the 2023 presidential election
A look at the results of the recently concluded 2023 Presidential/National Assembly elections might betray the high expectations that accompanied Nigeria’s 6th election since the country’s return to democracy in 1999.
Firstly, what many expected to be a credible election was marked by widespread reports of vote manipulation and voter suppression despite the Electoral Act signed by President Muhammadu Buhari in 2022, which gave the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) the legal backing to determine ways to conduct elections in Nigeria. Going into the elections, there appeared to be an unusual interest in the poll, particularly among the younger generation, who have been victims of some unfavorable economic policies that have led to rise in inflation, unemployment, and insecurity.
The number of new registered voters gave the impression that the election would witness a large turnout. However, out of 93 million registered voters, 87.2 million collected their permanent voters’ card (PVC) and 29 million people voted (29%) in the February 25 election, which is 5% lower than the turnout for the 2019 elections.
In 2015, when the Smart Card Reader was introduced, 43.6% of registered voters came out and cast their votes on election day. The figure was higher in 2011, 2007, and 2003, with a voter turnout of 54%, 58%, and 69%, respectively. While some political pundits argue that Nigeria’s previous elections were inflated and do not represent the true figures, the turnout perhaps queries the trust Nigerians have in the electoral system.
Dr. Robert Ekat, Neusroom’s political analyst, told Neusroom that the figures recorded in the previous elections were checkmated from large-scale manipulations by the introduction of the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS).
“The BVAS did a good job of regulating the voting system and preventing large-scale manipulations,” he said. “However, INEC’s inability to transmit the results promised had cast colossal doubt on the final results.”
Others have, however, attributed the low turnout of voters to other factors like the number of deceased voters and those who have traveled out of the country, whose name still appears on the voter register.
There is also a dynamic change in the voting pattern, since 1999, presidential elections have always been between two major political parties. For the first time in the fourth Republic, the Presidential election was a three-horse race among Peter Obi of the Labour Party, Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP), and Bola Tinubu of the ruling All Progressive Congress (APC), who was returned winner of the election on March 1, 2023, by INEC.
The numbers, as recorded in various states, question the relevance of political actors. In Buhari’s Katsina, where in 2019 APC won by 1.2 votes, was soundly won by Atiku Abubakar in 2023. The highlight of the elections could be when Peter Obi was declared the winner in Lagos State, edging Tinubu’s supposed grip on the State to a second position.
According to Ekat, “Peter Obi won Lagos State with a similar number of votes as Buhari did in 2019. He won with 582,354 votes, more than 2,000 of the 580,825 votes with which Buhari won the state in 2019,” which suggests that Nigerians are capable of making voting decisions without being influenced by political gladiators who overestimate their relevance.
Surprisingly, Peter Obi translated his supposed online popularity into votes and secured a total of 6,101,533 votes, coming third behind the PDP with 6,984,520 and the APC with 8,794,726 votes. These figures are amid reports of irregularities, violence, and manipulation of votes in Rivers State, Delta, and Imo, where the LP’s candidate is popular.
It is unprecedented in the past for a relatively unknown party to join the presidential race nine months to the election and disrupt the country’s political status quo, emerging as a major contender, and winning 11 states, including the federal capital territory, Abuja.
While Peter Obi and Atiku are challenging the outcome of the election over alleged rigging and INEC’s failure to upload the results to the portal marred the credibility of the election, the performance of the Labour Party in the election is inspiring younger citizens to get involved in politics.
