2023 is not 1993: Why Tinubu’s Muslim-Muslim ticket is setting a dangerous precedent
“In 1993, we had a Muslim-Muslim presidential ticket, and many Nigerians supported it” has been the line of argument used by supporters of the All Progressives Congress and Bola Tinubu, its presidential candidate, to defend the choice of the party’s selection of Kashim Shettima as Tinubu’s running mate. The reason for Shettima’s selection is simple: To win the northern Muslim votes.
Of course, the goal of every political party is to win elections. Atiku Abubakar’s selection of Governor Ifeanyi Okowa of Delta State as his running mate and Peter Obi’s choice of Yusuf Datti Baba-Ahmed as his running mate is strategic. Their goal is to win the support of people across the regional and religious divides.
In Tinubu’s case, it appears his ‘muslimness’ is not religious enough to impress the 19 northern states that he had to go for another Muslim to fill that quota, thereby jettisoning the unwritten law of balancing region and religion for the presidency.
Since Nigeria returned to democratic rule in 1999, there has been a balance when it comes to region and religion in the presidency. Northern Muslim presidential candidates had Southern Christian running mates and vice versa. Tinubu will be the first southern Muslim from a major political party, and many pundits and electorates expected him to pair with a Northern Christian. As things stand, if Tinubu becomes president (and it is looking highly possible due to party incumbency and political experience), his presidency will be the first without a Christian in the presidency since Nigeria returned to democratic rule in 1999.
“But the same thing happened in 1993 when Moshood Abiola and Baba Gana Kingibe were the candidates of the Social Democratic Party,” some of Tinubu’s handlers have said in his defence. Yes, both candidates were Muslims, but the Nigeria of then, three decades ago, is not the same as now. The ethnoreligious divide in Nigeria now is at an all-time high. The current tension now can only be tempered by being deliberately considerate in decisions that will further polarise the nation. MKO Abiola was overwhelmingly loved in 19993 and represented renewed hope in Nigeria’s democracy across regions and religions. Nigeria’s current reality is sadly not the same.
In the last 20 years, ethnic and religious rifts have dominated the majority of the crises Nigeria has experienced. From the religious-fuelled Miss World riots in 2002 to numerous ethnic clashes in the southwest. Boko Haram attacks have also been a regular occurrence as the terrorists vow to make Nigeria, at least part of the northern region, an Islamic state. In May 2022, Deborah Samuel was stoned to death by her schoolmates at Shehu Shagari College of Education in Sokoto State for alleged blasphemy.
One of the accusations against Muhammadu Buhari before he came into office was that he would Islamise the nation. Seven years in office and the stench of the perception still lingers. To ignore all these signs of a cracked, polarised nation and go for a Muslim-Muslim ticket is insensitive. Tinubu may ultimately win the presidency but lose a nation.
“But the north may not vote for Tinubu if he selects a Christian running mate” is an argument that further exposes the absurdity of how northern Christians are perceived. Are they considered not northern enough due to their religious affiliation? Is the Muslim-Muslim ticket a reinforcement of such belief rather than using the existing power of incumbency to appeal to the region? Is Tinubu not Muslim enough for the north to find religious affinity? Is this sentiment being reinforced instead of being challenged? Is the APC a truly national party if it cannot narrow down its search to a single competent Christian from the 19 northern states?
Others have argued that “The presidency should be about competence rather than religion”. This argument does not hold water in a country like Nigeria, where religion and region have been the biggest cause of unrest and violent protests in the last two decades. It should not be difficult to find the attributes of competence and Christian faith in an individual from the north.
If this is left to stand, a dangerous precedent will be set. A period may come where a solely Muslim northern party, either based on its strength or the weakness of other parties, launch a Muslim-Muslim and Northern-Northern presidential candidacy and win because they have the population.
Some APC members who have spoken against the Muslim-Muslim ticket or resigned in protest are not overreacting as some are describing them. They understand the danger of showing that a particular people do not matter in the large scheme of things. It is to prevent this sort of occurrence that the US uses an electoral college system where the population alone will not determine the presidency. In the 2016 Presidential election, Hilary Clinton, despite securing 65,853,514 votes, lost the election to Donald Trump, who had 62,984,828 votes, because the latter won the electoral college votes.
In the midst of all these, the APC, perhaps in a bid to ‘show’ that its Muslim-Muslim ticket has religious backing, paraded some people in costumes to pose as bishops during the official unveiling of Shettima as Tinubu’s running mate. It would have been humorous if it wasn’t done with the intention to fool Nigerians.
To Nigerians who are disappointed in the action of the APC, the best way to stop this dangerous precedent is to protest with voter’s cards on election day. Expressing displeasure on social media is only a part of the work; it is not enough to stop this consequential precedence.
