TIMELINE: How failed nuclear talks escalated US-Israel attack against Iran

On Saturday, February 28, 2026, the Middle East witnessed an unprecedented escalation as the United States and Israel launched coordinated, large-scale missile strikes against Iran.

The attack, which resulted in the death of Iran’s 86-year-old Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has triggered immediate regional retaliation and raised fears of a prolonged war.

Despite recent back-channel nuclear talks aimed at diffusing tensions, the fragile peace quickly collapsed. But how did the region get to this boiling point?

Here is a breakdown of the events that led up to the latest geopolitical crisis.

Israel and Iranian proxies have been engaged in a shadow conflict since 1985. However, this covert war spilt out into open confrontations beginning in 2024, culminating in highly destructive raids on Iranian nuclear sites in 2025.

The latest strikes are the direct fallout of overlapping crises: a collapsing Iranian economy, stalled nuclear negotiations, and a joint US-Israel determination to permanently dismantle Tehran’s nuclear capabilities.

Fordo, Iran’s Most Secure Nuclear Site—And Why Israel Sees It as an Existential Threat — *Fordo, Iran’s Most Secure Nuclear Site before it was attacked in June 2025*

June 2025: The 12-Day War

In June 2025, Israel launched targeted attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities, and on June 21, the US bombed key Iranian nuclear sites in Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.

The intense 12-day conflict resulted in the deaths of top Iranian nuclear scientists, military commanders, and over 600 civilians. Retaliatory strikes killed 28 people in Israel and injured thousands.

While the White House claimed Iran’s nuclear program was destroyed, US intelligence suggested it was only severely damaged and delayed by months. A US-brokered ceasefire eventually halted the daily missile exchanges.

*Iranians protesting against the Islamic Republic in December 2025*

December 2025: Economic Collapse and Uprisings

Late in December 2025, massive protests erupted across Tehran and quickly spread to dozens of cities. The spark was the freefall of the Rial (which plunged to 1.4 million rials per US dollar) and a spike in food prices. The currency had lost nearly 90% of its value since the US exited the JCPOA nuclear deal in 2018.

Citizens chanted anti-government slogans, demanding an end to the Islamic Republic. The state responded with a violent clampdown. While official figures cited around 3,000 deaths, rights groups and international media estimated the cumulative death toll at a staggering 30,000.

January 2026: US Warships and Trump’s Ultimatum

As protests raged, US President Donald Trump publicly backed the demonstrators, warning that the US was “locked and loaded” if security forces continued to kill civilians.

By late January, a massive US armada arrived in the Middle East. Trump explicitly threatened military action with “great power, enthusiasm, and purpose” unless Iran agreed to a new nuclear deal. Iran vowed a strong response to any attack.

February 2026: The Stalled Nuclear Talks

Hoping to pull back from the brink, indirect nuclear talks mediated by Oman took place between February 17 and 26. The “intense” sessions were led by Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and US representatives Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.

Both sides claimed progress, agreeing on guiding principles for IAEA oversight of nuclear sites. However, no final deal was signed. Barely 48 hours after these “progress” reports, the bombs started falling.

The Offensive: February 28, 2026

06:23 GMT: Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz announces a “pre-emptive” strike. Sirens echo across Israel as the military destroys key Iranian air-defence radars to create a safe corridor for follow-up strikes.
07:30 GMT: President Trump confirms a large-scale, coordinated military campaign with Israel. The stated goals are the complete destruction of Iran’s missile-industrial complex, its naval forces in the Persian Gulf, and any remaining nuclear infrastructure. The strikes resulted in the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

The Retaliation and the Fallout

Within hours of the US-Israel wave, Iran fired dozens of ballistic missiles and drones at targeted US military bases across six nations: Qatar, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Jordan, and Kuwait.

The regional fallout was immediate. Intercepted missile debris sparked fires at major luxury hotels in Dubai (including the Burj Al Arab and Palm Jumeirah) and caused damage to international airports in Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Kuwait.

Preliminary reports indicate over 200 Iranians dead and more than 700 injured from the weekend’s strikes, while several dozens Isralies have been killed and hundreds injured due to the retaliatory strikes. The US Central Command has officially announced that three American soldiers were killed and five were seriously wounded.

What Happens Next?

With Supreme Leader Khamenei dead and critical infrastructure heavily damaged, Iran enters an unprecedented period of vulnerability and transition. President Trump has stated he is ready to talk to Iran’s new leadership but issued a grim warning: the current military campaign could last up to four weeks.

As casualty numbers continue to trickle in and regional airspace remains contested, the world watches to see if this localised escalation will spiral into an all-out Middle Eastern war.