Kenyans protested to end bad governance successfully, is Nigeria next?

Nigerians want to end bad governance, some people may think this has been long coming but many people wonder how we got here, barely one year after a new administration was sworn in.

This is an explainer, an opinion, a truth about why many Nigerians are looking to be on the streets tomorrow with placards to demand better living conditions.

On the day he was sworn in, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu gleefully announced in his inaugural speech that “subsidy is gone”. This led to the price of Petrol increasing from ₦170 to over ₦500 almost overnight. Shortly after, his government floated the Naira which has now dived to about ₦1500 from ₦472 a dollar – when he took power. 

While Nigerians were still reeling from crippling inflation that followed the ‘fuel subsidy removal’ and the floating of the naira, Tinubu’s government proceeded to phase two of their master plan “to widen the tax net and reduce the spending power of Nigerians”, by introducing a series of back to back taxes. 

Increasing taxes indiscriminately exacerbated the impoverishing an already impoverished population. According to ‘The Price of Everything,’ report, a price survey by SBM Intelligence, between Q1 2023 and Q1 2024, the price of a bag of rice surged by 83%, bread by 81%, eggs by 91%, and coke by 100%. 

The World Poverty Clock reported in 2023 that over 70 million Nigerians i.e. 33% of the population are extremely poor. The recent UN Hunger Hotpsot data says over 31 million Nigerians are expected to face an acute food crisis between June and August 2024. 

And while the Nigerian masses have been tasked to sacrifice to build a sustainable economy, politicians on the other hand are having a ball, and flaunting it! In no particular order – N57b($38m) was spent to buy each Senator and House of Rep member SUVs, because of the ‘poor state of Nigerian roads’.

The president got himself a yacht and he and his entourage routinely spend millions of dollars on hotel bills on his frequent trips abroad. N15b was spent completing a new residence for the vice president. The VPs’ ‘old’ houses in Lagos and Abuja also got N3b and N2.5b each for renovation. The judiciary was not left out. They got a 300% increase in their salaries. Yet, the government says it can’t afford to pay the ₦250,000 minimum wage the  Nigerian Labour Congress demanded to cushion the effects of the inflation for workers. They agreed on N70,000.

Nigerians are hungry, angry, tired and want to end bad governance

The recent protests in Kenya should serve as a warning to other African countries. Especially Nigeria where the government has rolled out one tax initiative after another amidst crippling inflation and food scarcity. 

When President William Ruto pushed for the finance bill, he either did not anticipate or downplayed the pushback such a bill would face. In a country where over 11 million people live below the poverty line, proposed taxes on everyday items like bread, cooking oil, internet data, baby diapers, and bank transfers led to protests.

Kenyan youths have had enough. The protests which began on June 18, 2024, were peaceful. The demands were simple – withdraw the proposed finance bill. But they were ignored.

The mistakes African leaders make are deeply rooted in the African culture. We are raised and expected not to question elders – even when they are clearly wrong. So when the youths do it, because their parents won’t dare – there’s faux outrage. And the brats need to be reminded of their place in the pecking order. Cue the #EndSars protest in 2020.

Ruto’s claim that the protests were hijacked by organized criminals and he will do whatever is necessary to maintain order is nothing new. He is simply following a template Nigeria and a few other African countries inherited from their colonizers. The goal is to break the spirit of the protestors and to make future would-be protestors rethink. 

Martin Wachira, Managing Director of Nairobileo believes African leaders have a template they all follow. He says Ruto should have withdrawn the bill earlier before it resulted in violence. “ He should have read the mood of the country and withdrawn the bill. What infuriated the people more was that while they were protesting they were busy passing the bill. He shouldn’t have waited for people to die.”

Over 22 protestors died in Kenya. They died because they were tired. Tired of just existing while a tiny political class fed fat off their resources and yet had the gall to keep increasing taxes.

“Despite increases in taxation, we are not seeing services being delivered. We see politicians donating millions to churches. We see them riding in flashy cars” 

“What African leaders need to do is reduce the number of expenditures in the government. If you look at the budget, the amount spent on travel is crazy. If you tell people to live within their means they should cut expenses too” Martin added.

How much more of the taxes and impunity can Nigerians take? 

When the EndSars protests erupted, it took everybody by surprise. Police brutality isn’t new. Our fathers endured it. We inherited it. Gen Zs rejected it. 

Jude Egbas, News editor at TheCable, sees similarities between what is happening in Kenya and the EndSars protests of October 2020. “Yes, there are similarities. Like Occupy Nigeria and EndSARS, the Kenya protest is youth-led. The protests began from social media hashtags. The protests are a clear case of Gen Z coming to the fore and wanting assurances regarding their future.” 

Though Jude is doubtful we will see such protests again in Nigeria anytime soon he knows you cannot rule out Gen Zs .”After the EndSARS protests and the damage to the psyche of most young people, don’t expect another protest on that scale in Nigeria any time soon. 

Having said that young people in Nigeria would continue to make their voices heard on misgovernance, and the government had better listen. One cannot rule out another protest because you can’t entirely predict the minds and modus operandi of these Gen Z guys. They are an extremely different kettle of fish from the generations before them. And technology is one tool they can always deploy to their advantage”

August 1, 2024, is the date that has given the Nigerian government sleepless nights. It is the date that Nigerians have proposed to protest against bad governance. 

The government has pleaded via royal houses, distributed palliatives, signed the new minimum wage, and issued stern warnings or veiled threats, all in a bid to stop the protests from happening. Once again, they have accused imaginary “enemies” within and outside the country and are worried the protests will be hijacked by hoodlums. Sound familiar?

Protests are a fundamental right. The current President Bola Ahmed Tinubu was at the forefront of the OccupyNigeria protests against fuel subsidy removal proposed by President Goodluck Jonathan’s government in 2012. Ironically, on the very day he was sworn in, he ended fuel subsidies, sending the nation into the current downward spiral.

Whatever happens, Nigerians have the right to protest and should be allowed to do so peacefully.