IMF Forecasts Dip in Nigeria’s Economic Growth to 3%

Nigeria’s economic growth prospects have taken a hit, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgrading its 2025 forecast to just 3%, a slip from the 3.2% projection made in October 2024.

The revised figures were unveiled in the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) report, presented at the ongoing Spring Meetings in Washington, DC. The Bretton Woods institution also painted a bleaker picture for 2026, projecting Nigeria’s growth to slow even further to 2.7%.

This adjustment comes amid a broader deceleration in global economic activity, driven in part by escalating trade tensions. According to the IMF, recent tariffs imposed by the United States and retaliatory moves from major trading partners have triggered ripple effects across emerging markets, and Nigeria is not immune.

Despite the downgrade, Nigeria is still projected to outpace South Africa, whose GDP is expected to grow by only 1% in 2025 and 1.3% in 2026.

One of the most pressing concerns for Nigeria remains the slump in crude oil prices — a cornerstone of its economy. On April 9, Brent crude fell to $59 per barrel, marking the lowest price since February 2021 and falling significantly short of Nigeria’s 2025 budget benchmark of over $70 per barrel.

Speaking at a press briefing, IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas attributed the oil price drop to waning global demand rather than oversupply.

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“It’s the weakening of global activity that is driving the decline in prices,” Gourinchas said. “There’s been some increase in supply from OPEC+ countries, but broadly speaking, the decline is mostly coming from weaker demand.”

The consequences for Nigeria — and other commodity-dependent economies — are serious. Lower oil prices translate to reduced export earnings, tighter fiscal space, and slower growth.