China Boosts Russian Oil Imports as India Retreats Under Trump Tariffs

Chinese refineries are snapping up Russian crude oil originally bound for India, taking advantage of shifting trade flows triggered by new U.S. tariffs from Trump targeting New Delhi’s ties with Moscow.

At least 15 shipments of Russian oil have been secured by Chinese buyers for delivery in October and November, according to analysts, in a move that signals both opportunism and growing uncertainty in global energy markets.

The change comes after U.S. President Donald Trump dramatically escalated economic pressure on India earlier this month, announcing a 25% tariff on Indian exports to the U.S., specifically citing India’s continued imports of Russian oil and gas. That move followed Trump’s earlier threat to impose secondary sanctions on countries doing business with Russia, aimed at choking off Moscow’s war financing following its 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

India, once Russia’s largest oil customer, has responded by significantly cutting back on its purchases opening the door for China to absorb barrels at a discount.

Chinese state-owned and private refiners have already booked 13 cargoes of Russian oil for October delivery and at least two more for November, according to Muyu Xu, senior crude oil analyst at Kpler. These shipments sourced from Russia’s Arctic and Black Sea ports typically serve the Indian market due to proximity. Now, despite longer shipping distances, Chinese refiners are willing to step in, drawn by lower prices.

Russian crude remains at least $3 per barrel cheaper than Middle Eastern alternatives, analysts say, making it an appealing option for buyers able to withstand political risk. Xu described China’s move as “opportunistic,” but logical given current market conditions.

The purchases come amid growing concerns over whether Trump’s administration will target Beijing next. In a recent interview with Fox News following a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Trump said he was not “immediately” considering tariffs on China over its Russian oil imports, but added that such a move could come “in two weeks or three weeks.”

That uncertainty may be prompting Chinese refiners to lock in shipments while prices are still favorable and before any potential restrictions are announced.

“If more refineries act within a week or two, they can capitalize on the current price advantage,” said Xu.

Still, while China’s appetite for discounted Russian oil remains strong, it is unlikely to fully offset India’s retreat. India previously imported around 1.7 million barrels of Russian oil per day, while China currently takes in about 1.2 million barrels per day of seaborne Russian crude.

“China just can’t take on all of India’s volume,” Xu said. “If India stays out of the market for too long, that’s going to be a real problem for Russia.”

Last year, India imported $53 billion worth of Russian petroleum products, making Russia its largest energy supplier. China, meanwhile, imported $62.6 billion worth of Russian oil in the same period and now relies on Moscow for about 13.5% of its total crude imports, according to data from Vortexa and the United Nations.