Tinubu’s Debt Numbers: How Exchange Rates Skew the Narrative

At first glance, Nigeria’s public debt appears to have declined under President Bola Tinubu’s administration, from $113.42 billion in June 2023 to $97.24 billion by March 2025. But a deeper dive reveals the illusion: it is the collapsing naira—not lower borrowing—that is shrinking the dollar value of debt.

When Tinubu assumed office in May 2023, he swiftly ended petrol subsidies and floated the naira, reforms hailed by global institutions. The Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) exchange rate moved from N770.38/$ in June 2023 to N1,536.25/$ by March 2025. This depreciation slashed the dollar equivalent of naira-denominated debt, even as actual borrowing rose.

In naira terms, total debt increased sharply from N87.38 trillion to N149.39 trillion. Yet the FX-adjusted figure fell, creating what analysts describe as a misleading fiscal picture.

“The Tinubu administration’s bold reforms and high-level diplomacy have also translated to macroeconomic and foreign exchange stability and debt clearance,” said Ademola Oshodi, special assistant to the president. “The tangible result of this is over $10 billion in FX debt cleared, and foreign reserves rising from $3.99bn to $23.11bn.”

But critics like former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar argue the burden of reforms is unevenly distributed.

“At a time when millions of Nigerians struggle to survive, government officials are living in excess and approving budgets that benefit the elite at the expense of the common man,” he said. “Policy after policy under this administration has targeted the poor while providing relief and advantage to the rich.”

Despite improved optics in dollar terms, Nigeria’s debt-to-GDP ratio has soared—estimated at 55.48% in 2025, up from 41.15% in 2023—underscoring the weight of rising domestic debt and a weakened currency.