Sit at home: Why Nnamdi Kalu’s release may not end Southeast unrest

The declaration of a seven-day sit-at-home order by Finland-based Biafran agitator Simon Ekpa on July 2, 2023, appears to have rekindled tension and fears of violence in the southeastern part of Nigeria.

This fear which was heightened by the arrest of the founder of the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB), Nnamdi Kanu, in June 2021 by the federal government of Nigeria over felony charges.

Since then, the group has continued to impose sit-at-home orders to ground all activities across the five southeast states every Monday in protest against the arrest and continued detention of their leader.

Hence, across the region, from the once peaceful Imo State, known as the Eastern Heartland and booming with hospitality businesses, to Ariaria in Aba, Abia State, also called the ‘Japan of West Africa,’ where raw materials are transformed into finished products, the sit-at-home order has been having adverse effect on the economy of the region and impoverishing citizens. According to a 2022 report by SBM Intelligence, a non-profit policy and business advocacy organisation, the region lost a total of ₦4 trillion in two years due to Monday’s sit-at-home, while 254 people were killed in the first five months of 2021 as a result of the activities of the Eastern Security Network (ESN) or IPOB.

While the Court of Appeal cleared Kanu of alleged treason on October 13, 2022, and ordered his release, there have been pleas from different political leaders and other prominent figures from the Southeast calling on the Nigerian government to release Nnamdi Kanu after the court reversed its earlier decision and ordered a stay of execution pending a hearing and determination of the appeal by the Supreme Court.
Those calling for Kanu’s release hinge their appeal on the believe that his release will help douse tension and restore sanity to the region.

In his congratulatory message to the then president-elect, Bola Tinubu, the Governor of Anambra State, Charles Soludo appealed to Tinubu to prioritise the release of Kanu after his swearing-in.

He said, ‘in this regard, may I repeat my previous calls and hereby request our President-elect to release Nnamdi Kanu immediately after swearing-in (that is if he is not released before then). We need him around the table as an important stakeholder in discussions about healing and sustainable peace in the South-East.’

The governor of Enugu State, Peter Mbah, also met with President Tinubu behind closed doors at the Presidential Villa on Thursday, June 8, 2023, in an attempt to persuade the president to release Kanu.

Ohaneze Igbo, an Igbo social-cultural group, has insisted that the release of Nnamdi Kanu is central to achieving peace in the region.

“His release is central and fundamental to peace mechanism in Igbo land. Without releasing Nnamdi Kanu there is not much the service chiefs can do. Because of the leadership vacuum created over time, people believe much in Nnamdi Kanu,” Emmanuel Iwuanyanwu, the group’s President said on June 25, 2023.

While it is widely believed that a freed Kanu will help de-escalate the increasing unrest in the region, there might be reasons to suggest, looking at other similar insurgencies in the country and around the world, that the group (IPOB and ESN) might not be able to surrender their arms even if Nnamdi asks them to.

When the founder of Boko Haram, Mohammed Yusuf, was arrested in July 2009 and executed shortly afterward under controversial circumstances, some expected that the uprising of the insurgent group would cease to spread across Northern Nigeria. Unfortunately, Boko Haram grew to become one of the most deadly terrorist organisations in the world, responsible for the deaths of over 30,000 Nigerians.

Mungiki in Kenya is another typical example of how a group formed for the interests of an ethnic group can easily spin out of control beyond the grip of its early founders. Mungiki, which means ‘a united people,’ was formed in the late 1980s with the ideology of preserving Kikuyu traditions and rejecting Kenya’s modernisation, westernisation, and Christianity. While several of the early founders have died or are in exile, the Mungiki ideology appears to have been transferred to even the younger generation as the group continues to oppose the government.

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From the Janjaweed group in Sudan, whose leadership is believed to have some background in Muammar Gaddafi’s mercenary forces of the Tajammu al-Arabi, the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA), a Christian extremist organisation operating in northern Uganda, South Sudan, the Central African Republic, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, armed groups formed for a ‘good cause’ often grow beyond the control of their early founders, whether they are alive or dead.

It raises the question: What influence would Nnamdi Kanu have on the group after three years of his absence?

On several occasions, Kanu, through his spokesperson Emma Powerful, has called for an end to the sit-at-home in the Southeast. However, the group which is now largely polarised continue to enforce the Monday sit-at-home, suggesting that the faction loyal to Ekpa might not submit to Kanu’s order upon release.

The problem is compounded by the growing cost of living, caused by the removal of fuel and dollar subsidies in the country. Even before now, there has been an increase in kidnapping cases in the region, which some believe is perpetuated by the armed ESN. How would the release of Kanu disarm this group amidst growing hardship?

It is welcoming that Igbo political leaders are exploring dialogue to resolve the impasse between Nnamdi Kanu and the federal government, but they have failed to negotiate with their citizens, some of whom support, perhaps unknowingly to their detriment, the use of force to achieve the shared dream of a Biafra nation that Chukwuemeka Ojukwu failed to bring to them despite a devastating war.

Therefore, releasing Nnamdi Kanu might not solve the insecurity crisis. On the contrary, it might worsen the situation, especially if Kanu, upon release, fails to play by the playbook of the political class in the region and resumes his agitation. A more long-lasting approach would be to seek means to disarm the armed groups and provide employment for the teeming population. Additionally, addressing the growing feeling of political exclusion and marginalisation in the hearts of many Igbos is necessary. This includes implementing schemes to make the region more politically relevant and ensuring that Igbo politicians deliver on their political promises.