Op-Ed: Why 2023 presidential election may further divide Nigeria along ethnic lines
The 2023 presidential election has been an unusual journey with lots of surprises that have defied the predictable Nigerian political way. The emergence of Atiku Abubakar, another northern Muslim as the candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party came as a bit of a surprise as many expected the party to go for a southern Christian. Then Peter Obi who was Atiku’s running mate in the 2019 election decided to jump ship to the Labour Party when it became obvious that he was not going to get the PDP presidential ticket. In the All Progressives Congress, Bola Tinubu emerged as the party’s presidential candidate despite projection by some analysts that the ‘north will betray him.”
The presidential election has been a three-horse race. While this is good for the development of Nigeria’s democratic process, it has thrown the country into another quagmire that can threaten the fabric of the country’s unity.
The three major candidates incidentally are from the three major tribes in Nigeria: Atiku is Hausa/Fulani, Obi is Igbo and Tinubu is Yoruba. As expected, their supporters have largely come from their tribes. Many political analysts expect them to win their base easily in February while looking forward to battle zones as places to get more votes to win them the victory.
The 2023 Presidential election is bringing back memories of the 1979 presidential election where the three major candidates – Shehu Shagari, Nnamdi Azikiwe and Obafemi Awolowo were from the three major tribes. The election was ultimately won by Shagari, but it popularised the 12 two-thirds conundrum. The controversial judgement over whether or not Shagari polled at least 25 per cent of votes in two-thirds of states to be declared winner of the election. One other issue that stood out is the ethnic direction the voting pattern took. While Awolowo won in the southwest, Shagari won in the north, and Azikiwe took the votes in the southeast.
The current campaign has also slowly turned into an ethnic battle cry either vociferously by the candidates and their supporters or failing to address key issues that may lead to losing support from their ethnic base.
For example, during his chat with the Northern Elders Forum in Kaduna in 2022, Atiku told them that they needed him in 2023 and asked them not to vote for a Yoruba or Igbo candidate.
He said: “What the average Northerner need is somebody who’s from the north and also understands that part of the country and has been able to build bridges across the country. This is what the Northerner needs, it doesn’t need a Yoruba or Igbo candidate, I stand before you as a Pan-Nigerian of northern origin.”
Tinubu on his part has taken an ethnic stance even during the APC presidential primary election reminding everyone that it was the turn of the Yoruba people and that he is that Yoruba person that must be supported.
Although Obi has presented himself as a new kind of politician, refraining from ethnic narratives, his refusal to condemn the activities of the separatist group, the Indigenous People of Biafra, and its militia unit, Eastern Security Network, operating under the guise of Unknown Gun Men, has raised eyebrows about his stance.
This ethnic representation has spread to the electorates. Nigerian singer, Ọlawale ‘Brymo’ Ibrahim caused controversy for his social media rhetorics in his support for Tinubu. In a series of tweets over several days, he spoke against southeasterners going as far as to use expletives. Other celebrities have also pitched their tents with candidates who belong to their ethnicity with actor, Kanayo Kanayo releasing a video directing Igbos to support their own.
This election is bringing out an aspect of Nigeria many have been trying to patch unsuccessfully. Ethnic support is on the rise and polarising Nigerians more and more. In the past, it seemed Nigerians have been forced to make a choice between two candidates from the two ruling political parties. This meant that since only two ethnic groups featured as the main presidential candidates, the polarization along these lines was minimal. For example, when Olusegun Obasanjo contested for the presidency in 1999, he did not win in the southwest. Despite the fact that his running mate is a northerner, he still lost the vote in the north to Muhammadu Buhari in 2003.
The 2023 elections despite it being good for Nigeria’s democratic process will end up polarising Nigerians more. Whoever images president has an uphill task to do in unifying a nation that finds it difficult to see itself as one.
