The Obi-Kwankwaso ticket looks great on paper — but can it actually deliver the North?
One of the biggest conversations surrounding the upcoming 2027 general elections is the alliance of Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso. The two former governors dumped the African Democratic Congress (ADC) for the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), blowing up the opposition’s plan to face President Bola Tinubu as one united bloc in 2027.
Peter Obi has acquired a huge following in the country and had a decent run in the last presidential elections, where he polled over 6 million votes but finished in third place behind President Tinubu and Atiku Abubakar. At the time, Obi ran on a Labour Party ticket with Yusuf Datti Baba-Ahmed and enjoyed plenty of support from the younger Nigerians. Now running with a political stalwart in Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, many ‘Obidients,’ as his supporters are called, believe the ticket is the best to unseat the current administration.
Nigerians have complained about the current administration, with the high cost of living and rising insecurity. Social media consensus and political analysis believe that a strong and united opposition is the strongest chance to unseat the APC, which formed a similar coalition in 2013 before unseating the Goodluck Jonathan administration under the umbrella of the PDP.
In April 2026, opposition heavyweights gathered in Oyo State, hosted by Governor Seyi Makinde and featuring Atiku Abubakar, Obi, Kwankwaso, Rotimi Amaechi and Aminu Tambuwal to push the “Ibadan Declaration” to present one strong opposition front against Tinubu. However, the party, as well as other opposition parties, have had several issues. For instance, the ADC have internal court cases questioning the rightful leader of the party and many stakeholders have expressed their displeasure about the primaries that decided that Atiku Abubakar would be the flagbearer.
Obi and Kwankwaso defected from the ADC before the primaries, and the pull to the NDC was simple. The party formed offered them a clean platform with no internal court cases and no rivals fighting them for the nomination.
Can Kwankwaso deliver the North?
The North-west is Nigeria’s biggest voting bloc, and since 2015, it has been won by the ruling party. The All Progressives Congress (APC) has won the presidency and most governorship seats there election after election. So whatever happens in this zone tends to shape who wins nationally. The fear among observers now is a rerun of 2023, when the opposition split its votes across multiple candidates and effectively handed the advantage to the APC.
This is where it gets tricky for Kwankwaso. One analyst speaking to Premium Times argues that Kwankwaso’s real strength has always been concentrated in Kano and not the wider region. In neighbouring states like Jigawa, Katsina and Kaduna, he simply isn’t a crowd-puller, and in places like Jigawa, the ADC could actually gain ground.
Also, the youth movement that powered Kwankwaso’s strong 2023 showing is now reportedly fractured. His former protégé, Kano Governor Abba Yusuf, has lined up with rivals like ex-APC chairman Abdullahi Ganduje and Deputy Senate President Barau Jibrin — a bloc expected to chip away at Kwankwaso’s old base.
Kwankwaso may still put up a respectable fight in Kano, but nothing like 2023, when nearly everyone rallied behind him. Obi, meanwhile, should hold onto strong support in the South-east and among Christian communities in the North-central. And based on the results from the other elections he has contested in, former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, who is the ADC flagbearer, seems best placed to gather northern votes.
Does split opposition help the APC?
Possibly, yes.
Since its formation in 2013, seven North-west states have leaned towards the APC. This was partly due to the influence of the late former President Muhammadu Buhari, an indigene of Katsina state. In 2023, both Obi’s Labour Party and Kwankwaso’s NNPP performed poorly there so there is no guarantee that their alliance will change the minds of the voters.
It is important to note that Tinubu’s support from the region is not locked in at this time. Firstly, the strong influence of Buhari is no longer in play. More importantly, the region is feeling the squeeze of the administration’s tough economic policies, and the relief the government promised hasn’t reached ordinary people yet.
However, with the APC controlling almost every state government in the zone and most National Assembly seats, the divided opposition may ultimately work in Tinubu’s favour.
Kwankwaso’s dwindling support in Kano
Kwankwaso’s influence on Kano voters has been spoken about since he was the state’s governor. However, public falling-out between him and Governor Yusuf, who has defected to the APC, has likely damaged his once-feared political machine. Most of the commissioners, advisers and local government chairmen who did the legwork in 2023 came from Kwankwaso’s own Kwankwasiyya movement, and many of them are now with the governor.
Governor Yusuf has also assembled a coalition of Kano’s biggest political players against his former mentor. The result is that Kwankwaso may have already lost his grip on Kano North and Kano South, leaving him clinging to Kano Central — the heart of his traditional stronghold.
Obi and Kwankwaso teaming up on one ticket sounds, on paper, like a power move that may see the APC lose the presidential election next year. Yet, in Northern Nigeria, the region that often decides the elections, the maths is messier. A split opposition vote, a fractured Kano base, and a still-dominant APC structure mean the 2027 contest in the zone could once again break in the ruling party’s direction.
Whether that holds will depend on the economy, the campaigns, and the credibility of the election itself.
