Neusroom Explainer: What Happens If Atiku, Obi And Tinubu Fail To Get 25% Of Votes In 2/3rd Of 36 States?
Before a candidate is declared President of Nigeria, he or she must not only have gotten the highest number of votes in the election but must have secured at least 25 per cent of votes in at least two-thirds of the 36 states.
If no candidate meets the second requirement, a rerun election will be conducted between the top two candidates. In this case, a simple majority of votes is required to be declared the winner of the election.
Since Nigeria returned to democratic rule in 1999, presidential elections have primarily been two-horse races: Olusegun Obasanjo and Olu Falae in 1999, Obasanjo and Muhammadu Buhari in 2003, Umaru Musa Yar’Adua and Buhari in 2007, Goodluck Jonathan and Buhari in 2011, Jonathan and Buhari in 2015, and Buhari and Atiku Abubakar in 2019.
The 2023 Presidential election is set to be a three-horse race between Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress, Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party and Peter Obi of the Labour Party. Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso despite being a strong politician is not considered a bigwig in the coming election.
Political analysts have speculated that the 2023 election may end up in a rerun as it does not appear that any of the candidates will likely fulfil the 25 per cent in two-thirds of states’ requirements. While Atiku might be hoping to consolidate the votes from the north east, Tinubu will be expected to lockdown the southwest votes, while Obi is looking forward to a landslide victory in the south east.
The north-west, North central and south south remain battleground regions as the candidates will be hoping to secure their 25 per cent spread in those zones.
If none of the three candidates fails to secure the 25 per cent in at least 24 states requirement, the candidates who came first and second will participate in another round of the election to be organised within seven days and everyone who voted in the first one, including those who voted for the candidate who came third, will be eligible to participate in the rerun election.
The Kaduna State Governorship candidate of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) in the 2023 general elections, Senator Suleiman Othman Hunkuyi, has predicted that the 2023 presidential election would likely go to a rerun. For the first time since 1999, the prospect of a presidential election going to a rerun is looking imminent. There are concerns, however, about the ability of the Independent National Electoral Commission to organise another election within one week. Voter turnout may likely be affected in the second round of voting as some people who had to travel to participate in the electoral process might not want to stay for a week to be able to participate in the rerun.
Nigeria has never had a presidential election that ended in a rerun. The closest to it was the 1979 presidential election, heavily contested between Shehu Shagari of the National Party of Nigeria (NPN) and Chief Obafemi Awolowo of the Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN).
Shagari was declared the winner of the election after securing 5,688,657 votes in 12 of the then 19 states: Bauchi, Bendel, Borno, Cross River, Gongola, Kaduna, Kwara, Niger, Plateau, Rivers and Sokoto to defeat Awolowo who came second with 4,916,651 votes.
Awolowo took the matter to court, calling for a rerun as he argued that by not securing at least 25 per cent in 13 states, Shagari failed to satisfy the provision of the law. The latter, in his defence, argued that securing 19.94 per cent of the votes in Kano state was enough to secure the two-thirds requirement of the law.
On September 26, 1979, the Supreme Court ruled in Shagari’s favour, and his victory was upheld, a judgement many consider controversial.
