China Set to Lead Global Pipeline Gas Imports in 2025
China is poised to surpass Germany this year to become the world’s largest importer of pipeline natural gas, underlining a seismic shift in global energy flows following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The Asian giant is projected to import about 79 billion cubic meters of piped gas in 2025, compared with less than 71 billion for Germany, according to Rystad Energy. That marks a reversal from last year, when both countries were nearly tied at 70 billion and 71 billion cubic meters, respectively.
The development reflects Beijing’s closer alignment with Moscow at a time when Europe has sought to reduce reliance on Russian supplies. “China is probably a good case study of how you create lots of options for yourself,” said Mark McCrory, director for strategy and advocacy at the International Gas Union (IGU).
Russia has turned eastward after 90% of its pipeline exports to Europe were cut off following the Ukraine war. China, in turn, has secured long-term energy ties with Moscow, including agreements to proceed with the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline and discussions on new supply routes. “Recent pacts between Beijing and Moscow, including the decision to proceed with the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline, will consolidate that position,” said Martin Opdal, a partner at Rystad Energy.
By contrast, Germany has shifted to liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipped from the U.S. and other suppliers after losing access to cheaper Russian fuel. The transition has increased price volatility as Europe competes with Asia for LNG. Norway remains Europe’s main pipeline supplier, but with little spare capacity, the continent is forced to rely more heavily on seaborne gas.
Global gas demand rose 1.9% in 2024 to more than 4.1 trillion cubic meters and is expected to grow another 1.7% this year, according to the IGU’s annual report. Despite ambitious net-zero targets of 2050 in the EU and 2060 in China, the report noted that gas will remain essential “in supporting intermittent renewables.”
Still, geopolitical tensions and extreme weather are clouding long-term projections. “Geopolitical tensions are clouding long-term outlooks for the market and the pace of the energy transition,” the IGU report warned.
