Analysis: Where does the 2023 presidential election sit among Nigeria’s most controversial polls?
Nigeria has a history of political violence which always stem from the inordinate ambition of politicians, and election manipulation among others. Since independence in 1960, elections in Nigeria have always been trailed by controversies amid allegations of electoral fraud, mostly followed by multiple litigations.
From 1979 to the 2019 presidential election, the 2015 election where the loser Goodluck Jonathan conceded defeat before the winner was announced remains one of the very few elections that the outcome was not contested in court and that does not say it wasn’t without controversies.
The 2023 presidential election held on February 25, 2023, had its share of controversies, from the polling units to the results collation centres and down to the national collation centre in Abuja, controversies have been trailing the election process which the opposition parties – PDP, Labour Party, NNPP and ADC are now calling for a cancellation and rerun.
Many young Nigerians had high hopes in the electoral body to conduct a credible election, but what they got was an election marked by irregularities that have thrown the country into a post-election controversy.
In a country where the rate of unemployment has been on a rise and stands at 33%; the youths, disillusioned, are leaving the country in droves; insecurity has worsened and in the last ten years, Nigeria has been battling a surge in the kidnapping epidemic, with over ₦13bn paid as ransom in eleven years between June 2011 and July 11, 2022.
The Naira redesign and fuel scarcity are some of the austere circumstances in the 2023 election run-up, however, the proverbial straw that broke the camel’s back had been the 2020 EndSARS protest which woke the sleeping giants in the people, especially the youths, who pledged to become more active participants in the democratic process of the country.
Thus, while the 2023 Presidential election has produced Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) as president-elect, his declaration as winner by INEC is still being contested by many Nigerians and opposition parties who said the election was tainted with ballot snatching, manipulation and electoral disruption in some parts of the country, especially Lagos state.
The major opposition parties are now threatening to seek redress in court, making the election one of the most controversial ever in Nigeria’s history. But where does the 2023 presidential election sit among Nigeria’s most controversial polls since 1960?
1964/1965 Federal Election
After the 1965 legislative elections, the Western region saw one of Nigeria’s most controversial polls and worst post-electoral violence. The fiercely contested election was marred by riots, arson, and looting in many parts of the country and led to “Operation Wet ẹ” – coined from the setting ablaze of politicians and their properties with petrol.
“Operation Wet ẹ”, meaning “wet it”, was a result of Ladoke Akintola’s win under NNDP against Obafemi Awolowo’s United Progressive Grand Alliance (UPGA) amidst many irregularities. The political crisis plunged the Western region into turmoil, led to the death of over 500 Nigerians and encouraged the Military coup in January 1966.
1983 Governorship Election
The 1983 governorship election in the Southwest was another violent election in Nigeria’s history. The election, where the ruling party – National Party of Nigeria (NPN) – trumped the Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN), was marred by electoral fraud and led to violence in Oyo State and Ondo State.
The election did not only lead to over 70 deaths in the Southwest area according to reports but also precipitated another military coup in 1983.
1993 Presidential Election
The 1993 presidential election could have been one of the freest elections in the country but it became one of Nigeria’s most controversial polls in history. The fair election was annulled by the military government led by General Ibrahim Babangida who declared a new election for July 31, 1993, leading to protests and violence across the country.
General Ibrahim Babangida barred MKO Abiola, whose SDP had taken a landslide win, and Bashir Tofa, from winning the June 12 election, the ensuing violence led to the death of many Nigerians, and the annulment of the election triggered a political crisis that lasted for several months.
2007 Presidential Election
The 2007 presidential election was also marred by violence, electoral fraud, and voter intimidation. Before the election, outgoing president Olusegun Obasanjo called it a do-or-die affair for the country and his party.
“We want those who are going to succeed us to continue where we stopped,” he categorically declared.
In the election run-up, two PDP governorship aspirants, Dr Ayo Daramola and Engineer Funsho Williams had been killed, with the latter brutally murdered in his home in Dolphin Estate, Lagos. The election was criticised by both domestic and international observers as being rigged in favour of the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP).
The Guardian UK described the election as a “fraud-tainted election” and the EU described it as “not credible.”
2011 Presidential Election
The 2011 presidential election was another controversial election in Nigeria’s history. The election was tainted by violence in many parts of the country, particularly in the northern part of Nigeria.
According to Human Rights Watch, the deadly election-related and communal violence in northern Nigeria following the April 2011 presidential voting left more than 800 people dead, with three days of non-stop rioting in 12 northern states.
The violence was mainly caused by religious and ethnic tensions between the supporters of the main opposition candidate, Muhammadu Buhari, a northern Muslim from the Congress for Progressive Change, following the re-election of PDP’s Goodluck Jonathan, a Christian from the Niger Delta in the south.
2019 Presidential Election
Against the relatively peaceful 2015 election that brought President Muhammadu Buhari into power, the 2019 presidential election for the second term was marked by violence and voter intimidation. The election was criticised by both domestic and international observers as being marred by irregularities, voter suppression, and violence.
According to a report by SBM Intelligence, which monitors sociopolitical and economic developments in Nigeria, 626 people were killed during the 2019 election cycle, starting with campaigns in 2018 in one of Nigeria’s most controversial polls.
According to Human Rights Watch, the election that resulted in the victory of Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC) was precipitated by attacks on election commission centres, polling places, attacks on voters, journalists, observers, violence by security agents and indiscriminate shooting, and the killing of civilians.
As of the time of writing, the 2023 presidential election is dwarfed in terms of violence when compared to its antecedence. Even if three days before the election, gunmen killed the Labour Party (LP) senatorial candidate for Enugu East District in Amechi Awkunanaw, a community in Enugu South Local Government Area of Enugu State, south-east Nigeria. The victim, Oyibo Chukwu, was killed alongside five supporters who were inside his vehicle.
However, the election day itself saw its fair share of ballot snatching, misinformation, thuggery and interference which could have led to full-blown violence if not for the interventions of forces to quell any unrest and the resilience of agitated Nigerians, especially with the taste of the Lekki Toll Gate incident in 2020 still fresh in the tongues of millions of youths.
Still, there are major concerns about the potential for post-electoral violence. Political tensions are high, with accusations of electoral manipulations and inflations; the masses, especially the youths who are canvassing for a new order through Labour Party’s Peter Obi, are agitating and calling for more transparency from the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).
On Tuesday, February 28, 2023, some protesters took to the streets leading to the Presidential Collation Centre at the International Conference Centre, Abuja, and in Delta state to demand the electronic transmission of results from INEC or a rerun of the election. While the protests are still organised and coordinated, the refusal or inability of INEC to alley fears might be a turning point, where the protest could snowball into larger unrest across the country.
“We are not violent. Nobody is holding weapons; we are just trying to make our voices heard”, one of the Abuja protesters informed.
Nigeria’s controversial polls and history of political violence during elections has had a significant impact on the country’s development and stability. And the 2023 presidential election is also critical to the country’s democratic development: any form of violence must be quelled.
While candidates must calm their supporters, supporters themselves must be peaceful in their agitations as opposition parties follow the due process to lodge their reservations to the presiding body. The country is already at a tipping point, and the least we need right now is another “Operation Wet ẹ” or ethnic clashes across the country.
