Analysis: Trump’s Second Coming and How It Could Affect Africa
On Monday, January 20, Donald Trump cemented his historic comeback to the White House when he took the oath of office in an indoor ceremony that saw some of the world’s most influential people in attendance.
It was, in part, a gathering of tech billionaires, many of whose products are used by billions of people across the globe. Mark Zuckerberg, the owner of Meta Platforms, whose social media companies—including Instagram, Facebook, WhatsApp, and Threads—are used by at least 3.2 billion people, was in attendance. TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew, whose firm was still banned in the US at the time Trump took the oath, also graced the occasion. Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, Jeff Bezos, founder of Amazon, and, of course, Trump’s new ally Elon Musk, the world’s richest man and owner of X, whose influence is sometimes credited with helping Trump regain the seat he lost four years ago, were all present.
A look at the line-up of guests perhaps gives one the sense that not only has Trump courted the alliance of some of the world’s most powerful people—from those whose products shape the way we communicate to world leaders who dictate the policies we live by—but also that the President is set to shake the world order in ways that might be difficult to predict.
Expectedly, the President kicked off with a slew of executive orders that announced his second coming, which, in no small measure, sent strong signals across the globe.
But how will his vision for America impact Africa, a continent with a thriving youth population and home to some of the world’s most desired mineral resources?
Return of ‘World Peace’
Although world peace or the end of ravaging wars is often spoken of, it is seldom with the inclusion of wars in developing countries in Africa. Hence, it is unlikely that close attention will be paid toward ending the Sudan war, which started in April 2023. This war, which has displaced 11.3 million people, forced 26 million people to face severe food insecurity, killed tens of thousands, and has been described by the United Nations (UN) as “one of the worst humanitarian nightmares in recent history,” does not, regrettably, get the deserved attention it needs.
Still, in Africa, there are other wars—from the Ethiopian civil conflict and the Somalia war to military-led governments—that have disrupted lives but will not receive any serious attention from Trump’s presidency.
In contrast, even before he took the oath of office for the second time on Monday, Trump had already taken credit for the ceasefire reached between Hamas and Israel, which is expected to potentially return peace to Gaza and its neighbors.
“If we weren’t involved in this deal, the deal would’ve never happened,” Trump said, adding, “We changed the course of it, and we changed it fast. And frankly, it better be done before I take the oath of office.”
With over 90 Palestinian and three Israeli prisoners already released as part of the deal, attention will shift to the Ukraine-Russia war. Trump, without specifically stating how, has repeatedly claimed he’ll end the war. Some believe that Trump’s tough-talking style of governance will force both parties—President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy—to come to some sort of compromise, even if it entails Ukraine ceding captured territory to Russia.
Yet it won’t be surprising if sub-Saharan Africa, which is second only to the Middle East in the number of armed conflicts, receives no serious attention from Trump and his administration. While he is expected to broker a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine and oversee the continued implementation of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, African countries like Burkina Faso, Mali, Mozambique, Nigeria, and Somalia, which are ravaged by various levels of terrorism, will likely not be on the President’s radar of priorities.
How Trump’s Policies Could Reshape Crypto and What It Means for Africans
Despite the widespread acceptance of digital assets like cryptocurrency in the past decade, a new level of enthusiasm, fueled by the election of Donald Trump, a crypto enthusiast, has driven new levels of acceptance.
On Friday, as preparations for his inauguration were in full gear, Trump announced the launch of a meme coin, $Trump. In just two days, the coin surged to become one of the most valuable digital currencies in the world, returning millions of dollars for investors who bought the coin early.
Opinions are, understandably, divided about this Trump venture.
A crypto enthusiast, who described himself as one of Trump’s most vocal supporters, viewed the launch as a paradigm shift but also noted that what to expect in the crypto industry with Trump at the helm of affairs might elude even the most experienced crypto traders.
“Whether it’s good or bad, I really have no idea, but it needed to happen,” the supporter wrote on X. He added that “everyone will have their priorities challenged, even the cryptonative—people who thought they had cryptocurrency figured out.”
A young Nigerian crypto enthusiast, who preferred to be called by his first name, Chinaza, when asked by Neusroom what he thought about Trump’s meme coins, said:
“I am tired of Trump and his wife. They are causing problems for other coins.”
Apparently, 48 hours after the Trump meme coin was launched, his wife, Melania Trump, launched her own meme coin, $Melania.
“Trump and his coins are milking the market,” was how Victor, another crypto investor in Nigeria, put it.
Another crypto trader, who preferred not to be mentioned, told Neusroom that he saw $Melania about nine hours after it was launched.
“I thought it was early enough, and I rushed to buy, hoping that it would pump like $Trump. It dumped on me, and I’ve lost over 62 percent of my investment,” he said.
Other coins have equally dipped, and the crypto industry is witnessing a massive sell-off.
Economists have voiced their concern. Lee Reiners, a former Federal Reserve economist, described the euphoria surrounding the new interest in crypto, sparked since Trump won the presidency, as a bubble that would burst.
“If people want to gamble, I don’t care,” she said. “What I care about is when this crypto bubble bursts — and it will burst — it will end up impacting people across the economy even if they don’t have direct investment in crypto. And this new coin is making it worse.”
The fact that is derivable from all this is that Trump is bullish on crypto. Whether it is for personal gain or the potential of digital assets reshaping how we transact remains a matter of unsettled debate.
Nonetheless, the interest in crypto has no doubt provided a new investment opportunity, particularly in countries like Nigeria, where poverty is high and opportunities are low. Young Nigerians have embraced investment in digital assets, from those backed by projects like Bitcoin and Ethereum to meme coins like $Trump, making the nation the highest in crypto acceptance across African countries.
However, it could be best to be investment-savvy, as Trump’s enthusiasm toward crypto has further cemented his status as one of the wealthiest people on earth. Before Friday, Trump’s net worth was valued at $6.7 billion, according to Forbes. However, after the launch of his meme coin, a New York Times article claims the President controls another 800 million tokens, which could be worth as much as $51 billion.
But the lingering question is: Will crypto sustain its recent momentum and remain a vital part of the world economy, or will the bubble burst? If it bursts, as Reiners predicts, Nigerians — in a country with the second-highest adoption of cryptocurrency — might see their hard-earned and limited money vanish.
Mass Deportation of Illegal Immigrants
As early as the first days of his administration, Trump could start his ‘Operation Safeguard’ — a deportation plan that could become the largest in U.S. history if carried out.
During his inaugural address, the President said he would bring back the ‘Remain in Mexico’ policy, a controversial measure requiring asylum seekers to stay in Mexico while their cases are processed.
Eight hours later, he signed an executive order instructing the military to prioritize border security.
But who will be affected by mass deportation? Notably, citizens of Mexico, which borders the U.S. to the south, account for nearly half of all illegal immigrants in the United States. As of 2022, there were 11 million illegal immigrants (including those with temporary status) in the U.S. While this figure is said to be around 13-14 million currently, the Department of Homeland Security said Mexicans account for 4.8 million immigrants out of the 11 million.
While reports indicate that no African country is among 10 illegal immigrants in US, the latest data from the Migration Policy Institute (MPI) shows that the number of Sub-Saharan African immigrants living in the United States has notably increased in the last decade, almost doubling from 1.3 million in 2010 to 2 million in 2019.
Five countries — Nigeria, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, and Somalia — account for 53 percent of Sub-Saharan African immigrants in the U.S. Nigeria, with 393,000 immigrants, and Ethiopia, with 256,000, account for the largest immigrant populations from Sub-Saharan Africa. There are several reasons why the number of Sub-Saharan African immigrants to the U.S. increased 16-fold since 1980, including the Immigration Acts of 1965 and 1990, the Refugee Act of 1980, and family reunifications.
However, with Trump at the helm, who has already banned birthright citizenship through an executive order on Monday and is expected to tighten legal ways of entry into the country as he did in his first term, Africans will find it much more difficult to seek opportunities in the U.S.
Oil Boom and Climate Change Concerns
Although 2024 was reported as the warmest year on record, Trump has pulled the United States from the 2015 Paris Accord.
The agreement was an effort by 196 countries to unite to find ways to combat climate change through actions like using alternative sources of energy other than fossil fuels. The Biden administration, just last month, offered a plan to cut U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by more than 60% by 2035. This was in addition to an executive order to stop new oil drills in several U.S. coastlines.
However, during his inaugural address, Trump declared, “Drill, baby, drill,” marking a return to oil as a focus for energy.
“We have the largest amount of oil and gas, and we are going to use it. We will be a rich nation again, and we will use the liquid gold under our feet to do it,” he declared.
With five African nations — Nigeria, Algeria, Angola, Libya, and Egypt — out of the 30 oil-producing countries, Trump’s attempt to revert the world to fossil fuels might be a welcome development for these African countries. His executive order also attacked tax cuts on electric vehicles, a move that will make battery-powered cars more expensive, and perhaps rekindle interest in gasoline cars. Additionally, since Trump’s order aims to drill more oil at even cheaper prices, barrels of crude oil could witness a reduction in price in the global market, which, in turn, will lower energy costs.
David Okechukwu, a drilling engineer based in Port Harcourt, the capital of Rivers State in Nigeria, told Neusroom that Trump’s energy policies and his intention to drill more oil will lower the price of crude in the global market.
“We might see a slight reduction of oil price if US decides to drill as Trump is projecting,” he said.
Although this could be good for African countries like Nigeria, where the price of petrol has skyrocketed in the last year, contributing to soaring inflation that has eroded the purchasing power of citizens. However, lower crude oil prices mean that the Nigerian government might not be able to fund its 2025 budget, which was pegged at $75 per barrel of crude oil. This could result in massive borrowing by the government.
Africa at Risk of More Disease Due to Trump’s Withdrawal From WHO
Perhaps one of the biggest challenges Africa will face is Trump’s withdrawal of the U.S. from the World Health Organization (WHO).
The President cited WHO’s “misleading of the COVID-19 pandemic” and its “failure to adopt urgently needed reforms” as reasons for the withdrawal.
Additionally, Trump criticized WHO for demanding “unfairly onerous payments” from the U.S. compared to other nations. According to Statista, the U.S. was WHO’s highest donor in 2022, contributing $109.3 million — almost twice what China paid.
This is not Trump’s first attempt to sever ties with the global health body. In 2020, he initiated steps to withdraw the U.S. from WHO, though these efforts were reversed by Joe Biden on his first day in office. Now, Trump’s return has cemented the withdrawal.
But Africa, where tropical diseases like malaria, yellow fever, Ebola virus, and others ravage, could witness an epidemic breakout if WHO becomes underfunded and unable to supply medicine and other medical aids to the continent.
Dr. Onyeoguzoro Alex Chiebuka, a General Medical Practitioner, told Neusroom that “the core duties of the WHO are to fight diseases and organize a unified front against any pandemic that threatens human lives.”
“The withdrawal of the USA will leave a large vacuum in terms of funding, and if this vacuum is not filled as soon as possible, developing countries like Nigeria and other regions of the world will be negatively impacted,” he said.
In a recent report, WHO stated that the African continent accounted for 569,000 malaria-related deaths in 2023, representing 95% of the total global deaths (597,000) caused by the disease.
Of the 569,000 malaria-related deaths in Africa, four countries accounted for more than half of the fatalities. Nigeria, the continent’s most populous nation, recorded 30.9% of the malaria-related deaths, which translates to approximately 175,751 fatalities in 2023 alone. Other countries with high malaria death rates include the Democratic Republic of Congo (11.3%), Niger (5.9%), and Tanzania (4.3%).
“Simply put, reduced funding means reduced vaccines and medications used to prevent or treat these diseases, especially for the less privileged amongst us who can’t afford them,” Dr. Onyeoguzoro added.
As the Trump administration reclaims its position on the global stage, the ripple effects of its policies will extend far beyond the borders of the United States.
For Africa, the stakes are particularly high. As opportunities for wealth creation through digital assets grow, so do the risks of financial instability. While cheaper oil may provide short-term relief for energy costs, a weakened global commitment to climate action poses long-term environmental threats. Additionally, the healthcare vacuum left by the U.S. withdrawal from the WHO threatens to exacerbate existing challenges in combating diseases across the continent.
The question remains: How will the world, particularly African nations, navigate the complex web of opportunities and challenges brought about by Trump’s bold yet polarizing policy shifts? Time will reveal the answers, but the road ahead is fraught with uncertainty and demands resilience, innovation, and proactive diplomacy from the continent’s leaders.
