Why PDP Is Not the Party to Challenge Tinubu in 2027
The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), a political party that has existed for 27 years and governed most of Nigeria’s Fourth Republic, still considers itself the formidable opposition since it lost power in 2015.
Theoretically, by virtue of being the party with the second-most seats in both the Upper and Lower Chambers of the National Assembly, and having the second-highest number of sitting governors, the PDP automatically assumes the position of ‘leading opposition’ as a bragging right.
In terms of membership, the PDP, being the oldest among the leading parties — the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Labour Party (LP) — claims a grassroots following. In Nigeria’s political context, this is often referred to as ‘structure,’ a loosely defined term that implies the party has foot soldiers at the local government level who can carry out its bidding, even if such actions are illegal.
But since losing power, it has been a downward spiral for the party many once thought had entrenched Nigeria in a one-party system. In 2014, the PDP had about 24 governors across the country. That number has now been reduced by more than half to just 11. In the National Assembly, the PDP has not regained its majority. In fact, the number of PDP seats in both chambers continues to fall as lawmakers defect to the ruling APC.
One might have assumed that as the 2027 general election season begins, the PDP would seize the opportunity presented by the current state of affairs — widespread insecurity and deepening poverty — and launch a campaign with a believable message that could inspire Nigerians to demand change, just as the APC did in 2015.
However, the reality is entirely different. The PDP is not that opposition. What happened in Delta State is a loud testament to the party’s delusional self-image as a viable alternative to challenge Bola Tinubu’s re-election.
On April 23, Delta State Governor Sheriff Oborevwori, his predecessor Ifeanyi Okowa — who was Atiku Abubakar’s running mate in the last presidential election — and the entire state structure decamped from the PDP to the APC.
The announcement, made by Senator James Manager, carried significant political implications.
“All PDP members in the state, including the Governor, former Governor Okowa, the Speaker, the State Party Chairman, all Local Government Chairmen, and others, have agreed to move to the APC,” he said.
He added, “We cannot continue to be in a sinking boat.”
A ‘sinking boat’ is the perfect description of the PDP’s current position. For 25 years, Delta — an oil-rich state in Nigeria’s South-South region — was governed by the PDP. Although Peter Obi of the Labour Party won the majority of votes in the 2023 presidential election in the state, trailed by Atiku, Delta was still widely seen as a PDP stronghold. The defection of the entire party structure to the APC signals that the political elite in the state believe the PDP has lost all national relevance.
But Delta’s defection was not the first indicator of the PDP’s collapse as a credible opposition. In the 2023 election, then-Governor of Rivers State, Nyesom Wike, worked against his party to secure victory for Tinubu in what many considered one of the most controversial elections of that cycle. After Tinubu won the state, Wike was rewarded with the position of Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, yet he continues to claim PDP membership — without the party having the courage to expel him for anti-party activities.
Additionally, when President Bola Tinubu declared a state of emergency in Rivers State and effectively suspended Governor Sim Fubara — a sitting PDP governor — the PDP neither led an active nationwide protest that could have spurred a evolutional-like movement. The silence of party leaders, including those in the National Assembly, speaks volumes. It doesn’t just show that the PDP is dead — it shows that its lifelessness is a burden to its members.
The internal rot in the PDP can be directly linked to Atiku Abubakar, the 78-year-old former Vice President whose long-held ambition to become president now seems far-fetched. Yet he continues to live in cognitive dissonance, holding onto the illusion that his dream could still become a reality. This has left a bitter taste in the mouths of many party members — Wike, notably among them. Perhaps it was with political foresight that Nasir El-Rufai, in his vendetta against Tinubu’s administration, chose to join the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and not the PDP, even though there appears to be a brewing political alliance.
However, even with this emerging coalition, if the PDP does not reinvent itself and find ways to convince Nigerians that it can offer a better alternative to the current government — and, more importantly, if it does not remove Atiku as the de facto leader — then it is almost certain that Tinubu will have a smooth path to re-election in 2027.
Even the ruling party recognizes that Atiku has become the anchor weighing the PDP down. Presidential spokesperson Bayo Onanuga recently called the former VP a ‘serial loser,’ stating that the coalition Atiku appears to be leading has already disintegrated.
“Atiku’s political future looks bleak. The coalition that he, El-Rufai, Babachir, and new member Baba-Ahmed are cobbling together has disintegrated. Potential allies, including former running mate Ifeanyi Okowa and defunct CPC members, are giving his leprous group a wide berth. Atiku is a loser again,” Onanuga posted on X.
