One Year In Office: What Tinubu Promised Vs. What He Has Delivered
As Bola Tinubu enters his second year in office, the President is facing an array of challenges that many would say have worsened since he was sworn in as Nigeria’s 16th President a year ago.
On Wednesday, May 29, 2024, on the occasion of his first anniversary, President Bola Tinubu addressed a joint session of the National Assembly, choosing to remark on Nigeria’s 25 years of uninterrupted democratic rule rather than justifying his one year in office.
“Congratulations to every Nigerian for 25 years of unbroken democracy,” Tinubu said after he signed a law that reverted the country’s national anthem to ‘Nigeria, we hail thee, composed by foreigners before independence and used until 1978.
Aside from the National Anthem Bill, President Bola Tinubu has signed a slew of bills, including the Electricity Act and the Student Loan Act, as part of his economic reform agenda, which has sparked debate among Nigerians and experts alike regarding its potential impact and effective implementation.
However, the success of government policies must be evaluated using key performance indicators. So, what has Tinubu’s administration achieved in its first year in office?
Tinubu assumed office after a contentious election that polarised Africa’s most populous nation. However, there are several other challenges the former Governor of Lagos inherited from the previous administration, which many Nigerians believe have worsened.
On his inaugural day, when he first addressed Nigerians as President, while hinting that it was the proudest day of his life, Tinubu said the historical day belonged to the people of Nigeria, not to him. It was a speech that had eight bullet points: Security, Economy, Jobs, Agriculture, Infrastructure, Fuel Subsidy, Monetary Policy, and Foreign Policy.
But how has Tinubu fared in delivering these promises?
Security:
“Security shall be the top priority of our administration because neither prosperity nor justice can prevail amidst insecurity and violence,” Tinubu declared during his inaugural address.
But how safe are Nigerians?
Each day, at least 25 Nigerians lose their lives due to insecurity. According to data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED), a non-governmental organisation specialising in disaggregated conflict data collection and crisis mapping, at least 9,180 people lost their lives in Africa’s most populous nation in Tinubu’s first year.
In his first seven months in office, between June 2023 and December 2023, data analysed by the Neusroom team of data journalists showed that 5,109 deaths were recorded. This year, 4,071 Nigerians have lost their lives in various insecurity attacks from bandits and Boko Haram in the Northeast and Northwest regions as well as herdsmen crisis in the country’s North Central region.
One of Nigeria’s deadliest attacks occurred on Christmas Eve in 2023. As Christians in Bokkos and Barkin-Ladi communities in Plateau State prepared for Christmas celebrations, an unprovoked attack, allegedly by herders, resulted in the death of at least 160 people. Less than two weeks later, in Durbi, Jos East LGA community, gunmen invaded the home of Victor Itse, killing his 35-year-old cousin as his eight-year-old daughter watched in absolute shock.
“For four days, she was unable to speak,” Victor told Neusroom in an exclusive interview.
Another attack a month later in Mangu Local Government Area of Plateau State claimed 30 lives.
While another security intelligence firm, Beacon Consulting, puts the number of deaths between June 2023 and May 2024 at 9,740, it reported that there have been 5,488 abductions within Tinubu’s first year in office.
Indeed, the country is witnessing increased reported cases of abduction and kidnapping from Northern regions to the Southern states. In early March 2024, Africa’s most populated country witnessed one of its largest school abductions in recent history as 287 pupils and teachers from the Government Secondary School and LEA Primary School, Kuriga 1, in Kaduna State, were abducted.
The prevalent insecurity in the country has given rise to other multifaceted challenges, particularly food insecurity.
Food Inflation
“Food shall be made more abundant yet less costly. Farmers shall earn more while the average Nigerian pays less,” is another promise Tinubu made in his inaugural address that has not been reflected in the lives of Nigerians.
Instead, soaring inflation in Nigeria is eroding the purchasing power of citizens and driving millions of people below the poverty line. At 33.69 percent, inflation in the country is at its highest in over 27 years. Prices of most foods have gone beyond what ordinary Nigerians can afford, as food inflation has more than doubled in the last one year from 24.82 percent in May 2023 to 40.54 percent, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The cost of making some of Nigeria’s most consumed meals has soared, putting over 26 million Nigerians at risk of acute hunger.
While a year ago, a 50kg bag of rice sold for ₦42,000, the price is now ₦77,000, according to a recent report by SBM Intelligence. Rice, the major ingredient used in making the cherished jollof, is not the only item in the food menu that has gone up. A carton of Indomie Noodles Super Pack increased by over 100 percent. Prices of onions, tinned tomatoes, and bread have also skyrocketed within the last 12 months.
Although insecurity has prevented farmers from cultivating their farmlands, tanking the country’s agricultural output, other economic reforms initiated by President Bola Tinubu have exacerbated food inflation in Nigeria.
Fuel Subsidy
The removal of fuel subsidy was perhaps Tinubu’s first economic policy. As the newly sworn-in President, he declared, “subsidy is gone“ during his first address to Nigerians on May 29, 2023.
Within hours, the price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) increased from ₦250 to ₦500, and queues returned to various filling stations across the country. As one of the major sources of energy that powers vehicles used in transportation and conveying goods, the hike in petrol prices transcended to other commodities.
Although the removal was lauded by international communities as petrol subsidy gulped ₦4 trillion in 2022, the impact it has had on ordinary Nigerians has been devastating.
Monetary Policy
“Interest rates need to be reduced to increase investment and consumer purchasing in ways that sustain the economy at a higher level,” Tinubu, May 29, 2023.
Contrary to this inaugural promise, the interest rate in Nigeria has been increased three times this year. In February, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) increased the interest rate by 400 basis points from 18.75 percent to 22.75 percent. It was increased again in March to 24.75 percent and again in May to 26.25 percent, all in an attempt to tame soaring inflation.
Another of President Tinubu’s policies that has had far-reaching consequences is the collapse of the exchange rate regime, aimed at unifying the different exchange rates in the country. Yet, this policy, which was equally welcomed by international monetary bodies, caused the naira to lose value, depreciating from $1/N461.76 at the start of his administration to $1/N1,479.69.
President Bola Tinubu’s first year in office has been marked by numerous challenges, many of which have worsened since he took office. Despite efforts to reform the economy and address insecurity, the results have been underwhelming. With three years remaining, a policy reassessment and strategy adjustment could be crucial in achieving meaningful improvements for Nigerians.
