Is Wike Losing The Fight Against Fubara in Rivers?

Godfatherism in Nigeria is as old as the country’s independence. Great political figures who carved a niche for themselves in their regions have always, on their exit from office, attempted to put, in their stead, successors whom they can use as some sort of glorified puppets in controlling the affairs of that region/state. In truth, the success and failure of Godfatherism in Nigeria has been varied: While it has worked in some cases, it has failed woefully in order cases and boomeranged.

Remember how the former Premier of the Western region, Obafemi Awolowo, tried to install and subsequently use his successor, Ladoke Akintola, as his “boy” to control the West even after leaving office. Well, history students will point to ‘Operation Wetie’ and the wanton violence that erupted in the state as evidence of the awry outcome of that marriage. The West was never the same after that.

Many decades after that ugly era in the West, a certain Bola Tinubu, now President of Nigeria, ran under the Action Congress (AC) and won the Lagos Governorship seat in 1999. For him, Godfatherism has worked with resounding success. Many decades after leaving office, he still holds power in the state like a rope to a goat’s neck. The only successor that came close to defying him, ex-Governor Ambode, was immediately ousted from office and barred from running for second term without the support of party faithful all sworn to Tinubu. For Tinubu, godfatherism has clicked just right. No wahala.

For Nyesom Wike, however, his case appears more synonymous to the Awolowo-Akintola scenario and rather too antonymous to the Tinubu-Lagos set-up. Presently, the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Abuja, in his attempt to be Godfather of Rivers state after vacating the office of Governor, appears to have failed woefully. His successor, Sim Fubara, is now a torn in his flesh and is proving a tricky customer to Wike and his control of the oil-rich state.

Where did it all go wrong for Wike and Fubara? Both started like Siamese twins. Fubara, the capable and submissive Captain doing Wike’s bidding and the former, the able general dishing out instructions. Well, the thing about being under a person’s thumb is that, sooner or later, you start to get ideas of being “your own man,” and go weary of taking orders like a dog The choice to break off becomes somewhat easier when your ‘master’ becomes overbearing and power drunk.

There is, also, the case of ideology. For a puppet who can’t think for himself, receiving and carrying out orders will be an easy task. Just do the bidding of the master, enjoy the largesse of your office (well, after you must have given the master the lion’s share) and know peace. The alternative is to try to implement your own brilliant ideas, face a huge political mountain as a result and kiss peace goodbye. Well, the dogged Fubara has chosen the latter option and his master is throwing everything at him as a consequence.

What has Fubara not faced? Opposition in the state assembly, attempted impeachment and several epic pitfalls to frustrate his tenure. One word keeps surfacing: “Structure of the state.” Wike has made reference to this countless times, so, it can only mean that Fubara has ruffled feathers and is looking to change the dynamics in an epic game of thrones. Hmm. You’d be forgiven for thinking this a television series, especially with the constant back and forth, jibes and punches and political threats going on.

Truth be told, Wike casts a very large shadow over that state—his political influence is as long as Pinocchio’s nose and the average punter wouldn’t be scolded for betting on Wike to come out tops in this power struggle. However, there appear to be external and internal forces that just might tweak things in Fubara’s favour. For starters, there is Bode George and his constant nagging of Wike. George is a PDP strongman and as such, his opposition to Wike is not one to be taken for granted.

Then again, recently, PDP governors threw their weight behind Fubara. These last few days, they have called on the national working committee to declare Fubara, leader of the party in that state. This has irritated Wike and, being Wike that he is, boisterous and charismatic as he is, has promised to “put fire” in the states of the pro-Fubara supporters if they try to “destroy the structure in Rivers state.” Wow! What an epic battle unfolding. Suddenly, Wike finds himself facing, not one, but multiple foes. That seems too much of a fight, doesn’t it?

Well, if history has taught us anything, it is that, it repeats itself. In the late 80s and early 90s, a certain drug lord in Colombia, Pablo Escobar, once cast a very huge shadow over the country and the international drug trade. “No man dies except I say so,” Pablo once boasted and this much was true indeed. Men quaked in their boots at the mention of his name. Nonetheless, like some battles pan out, when the smaller pieces see that they cannot take on the gladiator themselves, they unite and form a single force in order to bring down the Goliath before them. And so, the Colombian government, the American DEA and every narcotics trafficker that wasn’t under Pablo’s famed Medellin Cartel had only one purpose—bring down Escobar and they eventually did.

Right now, it appears Fubara and his supporters are copying this very Escobar blueprint against Wike. By coming together in solidarity, they are putting their forces together in a bid to outnumber and outmaneuver Wike. I, honestly, don’t doubt Wike’s ability to win this war, but, I am a man that deals on facts and evidence. How can you fight enemies within and without? Your own party members are fighting you and your own Governor is kicking you out of the state: How do you fight on multiple fronts?

For me, I feel Wike is fighting a losing battle. In the past, I would have bet my last dollar on his victory, but, events of recent times seem to have changed the tides massively. No longer is this a one-sided contest. Fubara is pulling off what football fans call a “second half win.” With each passing day, Fubara seems to be gaining and inch or two in Rivers state and trying to solidify his base. Can Wike really win them all? I would, logically, reply “no.”