Bravery or Miscalculation? How Tinubu’s ‘Fearless’ Politics Could Backfire

“It is praiseworthy to be brave and fearless, my son, but sometimes it is better to be a coward. We often stand in the compound of a coward to point at the ruins where a brave man used to live. The man who has never submitted to anything will soon submit to the burial mat.”

The Thin Line Between Bravery and Foolishness

Chinua Achebe’s ability to weave deep wisdom into his stories is perhaps what makes him one of Africa’s most respected writers. In Arrow of God, Achebe uniquely captured the thin line that often exists between bravery and cowardice and suggested the often-overlooked benefits of being a coward.

In the context of Nigeria’s political climate, particularly President Bola Tinubu’s declaration of a state of emergency in Rivers State, fearlessness is at the center of a decision that has divided public opinion.

But could this act of bravery mark the beginning of his political challenges?

Tinubu’s History of Fearlessness

Bravery has been the mantra of Bola Tinubu—from the military regime to his tenure as Lagos State Governor—a virtue that ultimately fulfilled his long-held ambition of becoming President. His political journey is littered with instances of bold decision-making.

It is well remembered how, after the annulment of the June 1993 election, Tinubu fled Nigeria to escape arrest by General Sani Abacha’s military regime. While in exile, the Chicago State University-trained accountant, who has faced allegations of drug trafficking, was a major financier of the National Democratic Coalition (NADECO), one of the most vocal pro-democracy groups campaigning for the restoration of democracy and the release of Moshood Abiola.

Upon his return following Abacha’s death in 1998, Tinubu ran for and won the Lagos State governorship under the Alliance for Democracy (AD). From that moment, he became an unchallenged political godfather in Lagos, almost solely responsible for choosing the state’s governors.

His power, however, extended far beyond Lagos. In 2014, he played a key role in forming the All Progressives Congress (APC), the vehicle that eventually led him to his dream of becoming President of Nigeria.

Has Tinubu’s Bravery Gone Too Far?

As President, Tinubu has displayed a level of boldness that surpasses even that of past Nigerian Presidents in the Fourth Republic, including Olusegun Obasanjo.

Right at his inauguration on May 29, 2023, he declared, “Fuel subsidy is gone.” This was a policy that previous Presidents had considered but never had the political will to execute due to fears of public backlash. In fact, on January 1, 2012, former President Goodluck Jonathan attempted to remove the petrol subsidy but later reversed the decision after mass protests—protests largely fueled by the opposition, including Tinubu himself.

Subsidy removal was not the only ‘brave’ action Tinubu took in the early weeks of his presidency. He sacked the Central Bank Governor, Godwin Emefiele, who has remained in detention since then. His administration also implemented a currency unification policy, merging the parallel and official exchange rates, which caused the naira to lose significant value, sending prices of goods—especially imports—soaring.

Despite public outcry and threats from labor unions to shut down the economy through industrial action, Tinubu refused to reverse his harsh economic decisions.

Achebe’s words ring loud: The man who has never submitted to anything will soon submit to the burial mat.

The declaration of a state of emergency in Rivers—a state where residents insist there is peace—might be the brave decision that forces Tinubu into political submission.

The Growing Opposition Against Tinubu

“The unilateral decision of President Bola Tinubu to remove Governor Siminalayi Fubara of Rivers State from office is not only unconstitutional but also reckless,” said Peter Obi of the Labour Party.

For former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, the move suggests an attempt to consolidate power.

“We must never allow the desire to hold on to power at all costs to throw the country into unavoidable chaos through brazen subversion of federalism, democracy, and constitutional governance,” Atiku warned.

The opposition’s unified condemnation of Tinubu’s action comes amid Nasir el-Rufai’s defection from the APC to the Social Democratic Party (SDP).

Also Read: Tambuwal alleges N’assembly didn’t get two-thirds to ratify Rivers emergency rule

El-Rufai, whose disillusionment with Tinubu’s administration began after the President failed to intervene in his failed ministerial nomination screening, remains a formidable politician. He has the capacity to mobilize the Northern electorate for or against any politician.

With Atiku, El-Rufai, Emeka Ihedioha, and other political figures forming an alliance, a sort of political coalition, it would be a serious political miscalculation for Tinubu to ignore this growing coalition.

Will the North Abandon Tinubu?

The brewing political tension between Tinubu and Northern politicians—who have historically dominated Nigeria’s leadership—is unfolding amidst rising costs of living, insecurity, and a general sense of hopelessness. In August last year, it seemed the nation could no longer endure the suffering, as a nationwide protest, christened the Hunger Protest, swept across the country. The movement saw notable turnout in Northern states, where the Russian flag—now a subtle symbol of rebellion and a covert call for coups across Africa—was hoisted.

Yet again, the President appeared unmoved. A national broadcast days into the protests saw the demonstrations fizzle out without any significant government concessions.

Just last week, Nigerians took to social media to initiate the 30-day rant challenge, an online protest against the worsening economic hardship. The challenge was sparked by a viral TikTok video from Ushie Uguamaye, a youth corper, who called Tinubu a terrible president. Though the challenge has already lost momentum, it added another layer to the growing discontent—one that the opposition, particularly Northern political figures, seems eager to exploit.

The North played a crucial role in Tinubu’s emergence as President in 2023. He won states like Jigawa, Benue, Niger, Kogi, Zamfara, and Borno. He also secured notable votes in Kaduna, Sokoto, Kebbi, and Bauchi. However, with mounting frustrations in the region and rising opposition from key Northern politicians, the very coalition that propelled him to victory could soon turn against him.

While it remains uncertain whether the opposition can set aside personal ambitions to make Tinubu’s ousting their sole political goal—similar to the coalition that removed Goodluck Jonathan in 2015—the momentum is building.

If this movement continues to gain traction, Tinubu’s second-term ambitions could be in serious danger.

Tinubu is a political strategist with a cult-like following, but his apparent fearlessness might ultimately become his political Waterloo.

The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official position of Neusroom.