Nasir el-Rufai is ‘Intelligent’—But Can He Stop Tinubu’s Re-election?

Nasir Ahmad el-Rufai, the former Governor of Kaduna State, is a man many love to describe as intelligent, calculating, and ruthless in politics. Known for his wit and intellectually appealing rhetoric, el-Rufai has carved a place for himself in Nigeria’s political history—from his days as FCT Minister under Obasanjo, his influential role in the formation of the All Progressives Congress (APC), and his tenure as governor of one of Nigeria’s economically viable states. Yet, as the political climate begins to mature for the 2027 election cycle, one question dominates political discourse: Can el-Rufai stop Bola Ahmed Tinubu from winning re-election?

If you judge by his recent statements, el-Rufai certainly thinks he’s positioned to shake the table. But behind the grandstanding lies a familiar tale of bruised ego and political vengeance.

A Fallout Disguised as Principle

On April 14, el-Rufai branded Tinubu’s administration as the worst federal government in Nigerian history, accusing it of being intolerant, corrupt, and reliant on propaganda.

“This is the worst federal government in Nigerian history, and all the indices have shown it,” he told journalists in Katsina. “This is the most corrupt and most intolerant government in Nigeria. This is the most lying government that depends on false propaganda.”

For many Nigerians, el-Rufai was stating the obvious. In all measurable metrics of governance, Tinubu’s-led administration would hardly score a pass. Inflation has eroded the purchasing power of the middle class, while driving millions of Nigerians down below the poverty line. Insecurity has become prevalent. There’s hardly any part of the country that is not facing increased insecurity, and almost every week, massacres—either by herdsmen-farmers clash or bandits—are reported in Northern Nigeria.

Hence, while el-Rufai’s scathing critique made headlines, he was being el-Rufai—keying into the emotion of Nigerians to score cheap political points.

However, we know that el-Rufai’s recent outburst has a history. In August 2023, the Nigerian Senate failed to confirm el-Rufai as a Minister of the Federal Republic of Nigeria on the grounds of a pending security petition levied on the former governor, which bordered on insecurity, unity, and national cohesion. Hence, the petition, brought before the Senate by Senator Karimi Sunday from Kogi West Senatorial District, stalled the confirmation of el-Rufai, with Tinubu reportedly doing little or nothing to intervene.

For a man who vigorously campaigned for Tinubu in the North and helped deliver votes during the 2023 election, his rejection as a Minister by the Senate was a slap in the face, and the outspoken technocrat went into silence for several months, more interested in releasing motivational quotes and analysing musical lyrics of his favourite musician than commenting on political matters.

But a keen political observer would know that el-Rufai was nursing his disgrace and would not let go without a fight. Hence, his recent commentary on Tinubu’s administration did not come as a surprise to many politically conscious Nigerians.

Now a member of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), his recent attacks on Tinubu are less about governance and more about revenge.

El-Rufai’s Dark Political Luggage

While el-Rufai is intelligent, his record is far from spotless, and he is not qualified, looking at the entirety of his political history, to throw stones at Tinubu. He has been accused repeatedly of bigotry, ethno-religious bias, and instigating political violence—especially during his time as Kaduna governor. Human rights organizations and community leaders have long blamed his administration for divisive rhetoric that deepened religious and ethnic tensions in one of Nigeria’s most volatile states.

In 2012, el-Rufai tweeted a controversial statement that threatened anyone who might challenge the Fulani, an ethnic group, even in the line of military duty:

“We will write this for all to read. Anyone, soldier or not that kills the Fulani takes a loan payable one day no matter how long it takes.”

Dubbed the “reformist governor” by the Economist, el-Rufai remained accused of repeatedly endangering Christian communities, particularly in Southern Kaduna, by ordering them into strict lockdowns during his time as governor.

In a report released in 2021, human rights watchdog group International Christian Concern (ICC) called on the U.S. and others “to sanction el-Rufai for his egregious violations of human rights and hope to see those sanctions come about in the near future.” This followed numerous human rights abuses uncovered during his time as governor.

In 2019, el-Rufai threatened foreign election observers with death if they interfered in Nigeria’s electoral process, stating, “They will go back in body bags.” That inflammatory statement earned him condemnation both locally and internationally, yet he remained unapologetic.

These controversies paint a picture of a man who often walks a fine line between brilliance and belligerence. And while some admire his fearlessness, others view him as dangerously divisive—hardly the kind of unifying figure needed to mount a serious opposition to Tinubu.

Northern Clout or Delusional Ambition?

There’s no denying that el-Rufai still commands influence in Northern Nigeria, especially among a section of the elite and political class. But is that enough to rally the region against Tinubu? Highly doubtful.

The former governor has not clearly stated whether he wants to be president, vice president, or kingmaker. But whispers of a coalition with Atiku Abubakar, his long-time rival, raise eyebrows. Can he even be trusted? Just a year ago, el-Rufai openly criticized Atiku. Now, he seems willing to flirt with him politically—suggesting not ideological alignment but desperation for relevance.

What Does El-Rufai Really Want?

At his core, el-Rufai seems more interested in political vengeance than reform. Would he have seen Tinubu’s administration as corrupt if his ministerial nomination scaled through? No! For more than a year after that, he was silent—even as Nigerians groaned under Tinubu’s harsh economic reforms. He did not speak up when petrol subsidies were removed, nor when the naira plummeted, nor during the spate of abductions and insecurity.

Suddenly, he finds his voice.

This timing suggests that his criticism isn’t rooted in patriotism but bruised pride. And while vengeance can be a powerful motivator in politics, it rarely translates into sustainable leadership. Nigerians are increasingly wary of politicians who turn against their allies only after they are shut out of government.

If the opposition are looking forward to el-Rufai to lead the charge of removing Tinubu from office, I believe Nigerians would see nothing but a politically aggrieved man who wants nothing good for Nigeria but to save his battered ego.

The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official position of Neusroom.