Can the ‘End Bad Governance in Nigeria’ Protest Yield a Similar Outcome to Kenya’s?

On August 1, thousands of Nigerians are expected to march through the streets holding placards inscribed with ‘End Bad Governance In Nigeria.’ In the two weeks leading up to the protest, tension has been mounting, leaving both the government and citizens uncertain about the potential outcome.

Perhaps drawing inspiration from the ongoing protest in Kenya, and some of the results that protesters have forced the government to implement, including withdrawing the Financial Bill that sparked the demonstration, many Nigerians hope to “End Bad Governance in Nigeria” through the protest.

Planned for two weeks – a period many believe gave the government ample time to mount a counter – the protest, expected to attract significant crowds in major Nigerian cities, particularly Lagos, might fall short of Kenya’s protest achievements but could potentially snowball into something similar to the EndSARS protests of 2020.

Why Do Nigerians Want to End Bad Governance?

Nigeria is experiencing what many experts describe as one of its worst economic challenges in recent years, partly due to policies President Bola Tinubu initiated in his barely one year and six months in office.

From the removal of the fuel subsidy, which has caused the price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) to soar by over 225 percent within a year, to the collapse of the multiple exchange rate regime, a move that saw the naira lose value and now trade below N1500 per dollar, millions of Nigerians are struggling to survive.

With inflation at 34.2 percent and food inflation at a record high of 38.38 percent, 31 million Nigerians are facing acute hunger, according to a recent report by the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO) and the World Food Programme (WFP).

Hence, since May 2023 when Tinubu was sworn in, there has been growing dissatisfaction among the populace as many fail to see the impact of his policies on their lives.

The call for the End Bad Governance In Nigeria protest echoes this growing disappointment, but will the protest turn things around in Nigeria?

Why the ‘End Bad Governance In Nigeria’ Might Not Have a Similar Outcome to the Kenyan Protest

Since the Kenyan protest began over a month ago, protesters have forced President William Ruto to make critical changes in his administration.

After withdrawing the financial bill, President Ruto sacked almost his entire cabinet while appointing opposition leaders to appease the protesters.

If the protest, which has claimed more than 26 lives, can be seen as successful, it is partly due to the clear disapproval of the financial bill that ignited the demonstration. However, ‘End Bad Governance In Nigeria’ is not a result of a single issue but a general feeling of frustration in Nigeria. While this gives the protest underlying potency and distrust, the result in terms of turning things around in Nigeria is rather unlikely.

With a 14-day notice, the federal government had ample time to repeatedly use various means to persuade citizens from participating in the protest, from subtle threats to appeals.

In a viral video, Folasade Tinubu-Ojo, daughter of President Bola Tinubu, urged women in Dosumu Market, Lagos, to persuade their children not to participate in the planned protest.

Several governors have voiced their disapproval of the protest, often citing the potential deterioration of law and order that the protest could cause in their states.

In Yobe, the State Governor, Mai Mala Buni, has ordered the closure of schools ahead of the planned protest.

Alex Otti, the Governor of Abia State, during a statewide broadcast on Tuesday, asked youths to shun the planned protest and seek other means to engage the government.

Who Are Behind the End Bad Governance In Nigeria Protest?

Despite repeated calls by the Nigerian Police for the organizers to identify themselves, the leaders have remained largely anonymous.

Although Aisha Yesufu, Deji Adeyanju, and Omoyele Sowore, among others, have expressed support for the protest, the APC-led government has accused the opposition, particularly the Labour Party, of being behind the protest.

“The malcontents planning to stage nationwide protests are supporters of Peter Obi, the failed presidential candidate of the Labour Party. He should be held responsible for whatever crisis emanates from the action,” Bayo Onanuga, Special Adviser to the President on Information and Strategy, said in a statement.

Peter Obi, who has not publicly endorsed the protest but has hinted that demonstration is a civil right, in response to Onanuga’s allegation, threatened to sue the presidential aide for N5 billion.

Similarly, Godwin Akpabio, the Senate President, pointed fingers at the opposition for instigating a protest with the motive of gaining power through the back door.

“People who probably do not have their fortunes in the 2023 election are thinking they can come through the back door, and that will amount to anarchy,” he said.
“It’s very clear that people are behind this are very amorphous, very faceless. So what it means is that people are preparing to loot and go round and do all sorts of things,” Akpabio said.

Why Government is Afraid of the End Bad Governance In Nigeria Protest

Although Kenya’s ongoing protest serves as a recent reference point on how determined citizens can be in engaging to change a government decision, the EndSARS movement of 2020 is still fresh in the minds of not only ordinary Nigerians but political leaders.

For many, the memories of dozens of people killed and injured in the EndSARS protest, and how politicians tried to hide facts, including President Tinubu asking what protesters were doing at the Lekki Toll Gate where defenseless Nigerians were massacred, can evoke anger which could ultimately lead to a more intense protest.